Like me you probably thought you
were seeing things a couple of days ago when David Cameron suddenly seemed to
develop a backbone as he declared that anti-European ministers would have to,
er . . . follow government policy or resign. Indeed we were seeing things, and
normal service was resumed within a couple of hours as Dave caved in to the anti-European
fanatics.
I did warn that if the Tories won
the General Election in 2015, Britain would leave Europe. It is not what Cameron
wants. He and George Osborne understand it would be a disaster, even if the
rest of their party do not, but having the courage to say so is, of course,
quite another matter.
It’s clear that Cameron’s plan is
to follow Harold Wilson’s recipe from 1975. Lace your speeches with plenty of
anti-European rhetoric and agree to a referendum to placate the extremists in
your party. Carry on a ‘renegotiation’ with your European partners. Gain a
couple of cosmetic changes that you sell as major concessions. Win the
referendum to stay in Europe by a comfortable majority.
I covered the 1975 referendum, and here is why Cameron will
fail:-
1. Harold Wilson was one of the
sharpest political operators Britain has ever seen. Cameron is simply not in
his class.
2. The newspapers in Wilson’s time
covered Europe reasonably fairly. Now the
papers with the biggest circulations spew out an unremitting stream of
anti-European bile.
Brexit looms. Will the last
businessman to leave the country please turn out the lights.
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