Can animals predict disasters?

Five tiny songbirds fitted with tracking devices appear to have fled their nests in Tennessee just a day before tornadoes struck in April. The golden-winged warblers had arrived at their nesting site only a few days earlier after a 3,000 mile journey from Colombia.

Scientists believe they flew 400 miles south to escape the storms which killed 35 people, then returned after a few days. They think the warblers may have been alerted by a very deep rumble in the air, inaudible to the human ear.

In 2004, there were stories of animals escaping the Boxing Day tsunami. Witnesses spoke of flamingos deserting low-lying breeding areas, elephants screaming and running to higher ground, and dogs and zoo animals refusing to go outside their shelters.

While more than 200,000 people died, there were relatively few animal casualties. At Patanangala beach in Sri Lanka’s Yala National Park, home to a wide variety of animals, 60 people were washed away, but the only animals lost were two water buffaloes. There is speculation that perhaps animals are able to detect vibrations in the earth that pass us by.

UN inspectors move in - in Sri Lanka

As the Syrian government agrees to allow UN inspectors to visit the site of a suspected chemical weapons attack, the organisation’s human rights commissioner, Navi Pillay, has arrived in Sri Lanka for a fact-finding mission in areas scarred by that country’s long and bloody civil war.

The UN has said that at least 40,000 civilians, mainly Tamils, died in the final months of the conflict in 2009 as the Tamil Tigers were finally defeated. The government was accused of shelling hospitals and refugee camps, but it has resisted international calls for the allegations to be investigated.

Over the last two years, the UN Human Rights Council has passed two resolutions demanding that Sri Lanka launch an independent investigation, while Canada has called for a boycott of a Commonwealth summit scheduled to take place in Colombo in November.

Ms Pillay is expected to hold meetings with members of the Tamil community as well as with the Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, before reporting back to the UN.

Sri Lanka war crimes

A United Nations investigation has concluded that Sri Lankan government forces killed tens of thousands of civilians in the final stages of the country’s civil war in 2009. Its report also says that the Tamil Tiger rebels used civilians as human shields, and that both sides were guilty of atrocities.

The Sri Lankan government had refused to allow the investigating team into the country, and tried to get the report suppressed. It has now rejected its findings.

The report says that government forces deliberately shelled hospitals, UN centres and Red Cross ships in the last rebel-held enclave in the north of the country. It urges Sri Lanka to begin a fair investigation into acts that could amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said that he cannot investigate the allegations himself unless the Sri Lankan government agrees, or member states make the request, but the pressure group Human Rights Watch disputes this.

Sri Lanka - another forgotten flood

One month ago today (Jan 6, 2011), I blogged about the Philippines floods, which had been forgotten as the world watched what was happening in Australia. The world also seems to have overlooked the current monsoon floods in Sri Lanka.

At least 14 people have been killed, and more than a million have had their homes flooded. A quarter of a million are now living in shelters provided by the government. Roads and fields are under water across the east, centre and north of the island.

Those areas were also hit by floods caused by heavy rain last month, when 43 people were killed. The United Nations appealed for 51 million dollars in emergency aid to help the victims.

Perhaps the deadliest monsoon flood of all time was the one that struck India in September 1978, and was made even more disastrous by a cyclone the following month. An estimated 15,000 people were killed.

Sri Lanka fights against inquiry

Sri Lanka is trying to block efforts by the United Nations to investigate possible human rights abuses by the government in its war with the Tamil Tigers which ended last year. UN Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, however, says he will press on, and the International Crisis Group NGO is demanding an inquiry into suspected war crimes by both sides.

The ICG believes the Sri Lankan government may have killed tens of thousands of Tamil civilians. Ministers say it killed none at all, but in northern Tamil areas, people have been demonstrating to demand information about 12,000 who have disappeared. Some may be being held by the army.

The ICG’s head, Louise Arbour, says Sri Lanka’s tactics were based on allowing the army complete freedom to pursue scorched earth policies in rebel territories, making no distinction between combatants and non-combatants, and ignoring any international criticism.

Whatever the IGC’s qualms, some applaud, like Myanmar’s military dictator, Than Shwe. General Than rarely strays from the shores of the country he represses so relentlessly. But he did make a visit to Sri Lanka to see if there were any tips he might pick up. (See also my blogs of Feb 24 and May 11, 18 and 24, 2009.)

Sri Lanka - a glimpse of the disaster

The outside world has been given its first glimpse of the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Sri Lanka after the defeat of the Tamil Tigers, as journalists, who have been kept out of the way by the government, were able to accompany UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on his visit. From a helicopter they saw the utter devastation of the area where the Tigers made their last stand.

The UN says 7,000 civilians have been killed since January. The Sri Lankan government denies the figure, but says the Tigers were using civilians as human shields.

Ban Ki-moon’s visit also meant that for the first time, journalists got to see the “refugee” camps in which Tamil civilians are being held. The main one holds 220,000. It is surrounded by barbed wire and armed soldiers. There is desperate overcrowding, but the government says it will not let people leave until it has made sure there are no Tigers among them, which may take six months. The UN says people should be allowed to rejoin their families.

Aid agencies claim that their access to the Tamils has been restricted, and Mr Ban saw elderly, malnourished patients lying on cot beds in the open air with flies buzzing around them. There is also anxiety that unless there is a political settlement that offers reconciliation between the majority Sinhalese and minorities like the Tamils, trouble could soon flare up again.

Sri Lanka - end of the end game?

Reports are emerging from Sri Lanka that the leader of the Tamil Tigers may have been killed along with his son as his forces mount what looks like a last stand in a tiny area in the north of the island. The government claims that tens of thousands of civilians have been allowed to flee over the last few days, but with journalists banned and the Red Cross – the only outsiders allowed access to the conflict area by the Sri Lankan government – having lost contact with its people, it is hard to form an accurate picture.

We do know that the United Nations is saying that 300,000 civilians have had to flee their homes in the last few weeks, and it believes that many of those who have escaped in the last few days need urgent medical treatment for wounds or malnutrition, while the Sri Lankan army says only a few need hospital care.

The Tigers’ fight for a Tamil homeland has cost 70,000 lives over the last quarter of a century, and many in Sri Lanka are relieved that it now appears to be over, but others are worried that the army’s campaign will have radicalised the Tamil minority, and that the Tigers may soon launch a suicide bombing campaign.

Meanwhile the UK and the UN have called for an investigation into allegations that the Sri Lankan forces committed war crimes by shelling civilian targets such as hospitals. See also my blogs of Jan 28, Feb 24 and May 11.

Sri Lanka bloodbath + deadliest man-made flood

The United Nations is complaining about a “bloodbath” in the last Tamil Tiger-held area of Sri Lanka after it was shelled by heavy artillery. At least 378 civilians have been killed, including 100 children. An estimated 50,000 people are still trapped.

The Tigers blame the Sri Lankan government, while the government claims the Tigers killed their own people. It is difficult to arrive at the truth as the Sri Lankan government has banned journalists from reporting in the area, and has just arrested three British television reporters for producing “false” news. It is perhaps significant, though, that Sri Lanka’s official state-owned newspaper made no mention of the attack.

The Tigers have been fighting for an independent homeland since 1983, and more than 70,000 people have been killed in the war. (See also my blogs of Jan 28 and Feb 24)

On this day....71 years ago, China was being overrun by the invading Japanese, who were threatening a crucial railway junction at Zhengzhou. In desperation, the leader of the Chinese Nationalists, Chiang Kai-shek ordered the dyke of the Yellow River near the city to be blown up.

To make sure the invaders were caught by surprise, no warning was given to local people. The Japanese were swamped in a flood that eventually covered 21,000 square miles, and it is estimated that the ploy delayed their advance by up to three months. Unfortunately it also killed up to 900,000 Chinese civilians, making this the deadliest man-made flood in history.

Sri Lanka endgame?

The United Nations and the European Union are pressing for an immediate ceasefire in Sri Lanka to allow up to 200,000 civilians to escape from the battlefield on which perhaps the final struggle between the government and the Tamil Tigers is now raging. The Tigers say they would accept a truce, but the government is insisting that the rebels lay down their arms and surrender, and this they have so far refused to do.

Government troops have now entered Puthukudiyiruppu, the last town held by the Tigers, who are alleged to be shooting people who try to flee. The rebels also mounted two suicide attacks on Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo with light aircraft, but one was shot down, and the number of deaths on the ground was limited to two.

The Tigers have been fighting for an independent state in the north-east of the island since the 1970’s, claiming that Tamils have been oppressed by the Sinhalese minority in Sri Lanka ever since independence from Britain in 1948. An estimated 70,000 people have died in the fighting.

End of a civil war + cricket "disaster"

Some observers believe that the civil war between the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tigers is nearing an end after a series of successes for government troops over the last few weeks, including the taking of Kilinochchi - the Tigers’ political and administrative centre. The Red Cross is warning that the fighting is causing a humanitarian crisis with over a quarter of a million civilians fleeing their homes. Altogether about 70,000 have been killed in the conflict over the last three decades.

On this day.....in 1887 – a sporting disaster. England were bowled out for 45 by Australia in Sydney – their lowest ever test score. George Lohmann, coming in at 9, was top scorer with 17. It proved an important contribution. Australia made 119 in their first innings. Then England replied with 184, leaving Australia needing just 111 to win, but they were dismissed for 97. Astonishingly, England had won by 13 runs. Lohmann took three wickets in each innings.