Flu - here we go again?

 

We’ve been here before.   The world is once again anxious about a strain of bird flu spreading through China.    This one is called H7N9. It has infected 60 people and caused 13 deaths.

The World Health Organisation says it is being spread by direct contact with infected birds, and that there is no evidence of direct human-to-human transmission.   Nor it seems are there yet any cases outside China.

Another strain of bird flu, H5N1, (viruses pictured above) has caused the deaths of more than 320 people in China and four other countries since 2003.     In 2009, the WHO declared a pandemic alert over H1N1 swine flu, which killed more than 18,000 people.  

So-called ‘Spanish flu’ caused one of the worst epidemics in history at the end of the First World War, carrying off up to 70 million people.    (See also my blogs of 5 Feb; 14, 30 April; 13 May; 6, 11, July; 24 Oct, 13 Dec, 2009.)  

Swine flu v bird flu

Swine flu has now overtaken bird flu. We have had 262 deaths from bird flu (H5N1) against 382 from swine flu (H1N1). Bird flu remains far more virulent, with its 262 deaths coming from just 436 confirmed cases, while there have been nearly 90,000 cases of bird flu.

The World Health Organisation says that most people who catch swine flu can expect a mild infection from which they make a full recovery within a week, and that the main risk is to pregnant women or people with other health problems.

The virus has now spread to 100 countries, and there are some peculiarities in the figures. Argentina has had 26 deaths at a rate of about 1 for every 60 cases – the highest in the world. Mexico, where the disease first appeared, has suffered 119 deaths at about 1 in every 85 cases. The United States has the highest number of deaths – 170 – but the rate is only about 1 in 200 of those infected.

Europe has suffered much less so far. The UK has been worst hit with nearly 7,500 cases, but only four deaths – a rate of 1 in 1,875. However, the government is warning that by the end of next month, Britain could be seeing 100,000 new cases every day. Could that produce the same kind of devastating effect on public services that we saw in the great flu pandemic of 1918, when schools closed, fire stations had no firemen, buses stopped?

That epidemic was dubbed “Spanish flu”, because it was there that the world first became aware of the virus. This time around, Spain has had 760 cases and just one death. Even so, yesterday, the Spanish newspaper El Pais decided to publish the section on flu from my book A Disastrous History of the World. This is the link to the story:- http://www.elpais.com/articulo/sociedad/Fue/gripe/espanola/elpepusoc/20090704elpepusoc_2/Tes

Swine before birds

While we were all watching out for bird flu (see my blog of February 5th), swine flu has nipped in on the blindside and may inflict on the world its first flu pandemic since the one in 1968 that killed perhaps 1 million people.

We had got used to worrying about H5N1, but in fact it is a new version of H1N1 that has got the World Health Organisation to raise its alert to one notch below full pandemic status. H1N1 is the same strain that causes seasonal flu in humans fairly frequently, but this type incorporates genetic material from viruses that attack pigs and, yes, birds.

If the European Commission has its way, though, the name “swine flu” will be short-lived. They want it to be re-christened “novel flu” so it doesn’t stop people buying pork and bacon.

The outbreak seems to have begun in Mexico, where there have been 168 suspected deaths, though only 8 confirmed. Global travel has expanded enormously since the last flu pandemic, giving the virus opportunities to spread further and faster than ever before. There have already been confirmed cases in 13 countries, though only one death outside Mexico. So it is perhaps a hopeful sign that outside Mexico, the disease so far seems to have been generally mild. Touch wood!