Coronavirus: renewed interest in the historical perspective

Is it the coronavirus epidemic that has stirred up renewed interest in my book A Disastrous History of the World (Little, Brown), which appeared in the US as Disaster! (Skyhorse)?

A Mexican blog has been drawing on the sections on the early plagues of Athens, Rome and Byzantium, quoting the Spanish language edition – Historia mundial de los desastres (Turner). https://imparcialoaxaca.mx/opinion/418240/de-pandemias-y-otras-desgracias/

A Barcelona newspaper also gave the book a mention https://www.elpuntavui.cat/cultura/article/19-cultura/1761002-historia-mundial-de-los-desastres.html

This Romanian blogger concentrates on the chapters on plagues and diseases – discussing, among others, smallpox, cholera, typhus, malaria, sleeping sickness and flu.

https://alexciotir.wordpress.com/2020/04/14/pandemie/

While this Romanian article covers what I wrote about the great European famine that occurred during the ‘Little Ice Age’ of the early 14^th century, and killed, according to some, up to a quarter of the population.

https://adevarul.ro/locale/alba-iulia/marea-foamete-ucis-sfert-populatia-europei-rolul-avut-mica-era-galciara-disparitia-hranei-1_5e83403b5163ec4271567d29/index.html

 The Romanian language edition of the book is Cele mai mari dezastre din istoria omenirii (Polirom).

How smallpox conquered an empire

On this day…………….492 years ago, the Spanish conquistador, Hernan Cortes, took Tenochtitlán, now Mexico City. Cortes was a commander of extraordinary energy and daring, and he captured the Aztec capital with just a few hundred Spaniards, though it is often forgotten that his army also included tens of thousands of Indians.

And he had a secret weapon more deadly than any of the arms his men deployed so ruthlessly – smallpox. The Aztecs had no resistance to this disease introduced from Europe.

In the crowded streets of the capital, it spread like wildfire. The victims who found themselves covered from head to foot with agonising sores, called it the ‘great rash’. They ‘died in heaps, like bedbugs’, wrote a missionary.

Among those who perished was the Aztecs’ leader, Cuitlahuac. Still they held out heroically for three months, and when the Spaniards finally entered Tenochtitlán, they found themselves walking on the corpses of those killed by smallpox. For the full story, see A Disastrous History of the World.

* A preview of my new book, Flood, out on November 1. http://www.reaktionbooks.co.uk/reaktion/display.asp?K=e2013042214580897&m=29&dc=664

'War on drugs' - holes and digging

Last week it was revealed that, in addition to the 60,000 people known to have been killed in Mexico’s ‘war on drugs’, another 25,000 are missing.   Now the Economist has produced some startling statistics concerning drugs globally.

Since 1998, when the United Nations held an event entitled ‘A drug-free world – we can do it’, consumption of cannabis and cocaine has risen by about 50%, while used of opiates has more than trebled.   The illegal drugs industry now has an income of about $300 billion a year.   That is equivalent to about one eighth of Britain’s gross domestic product – everything the country makes.

The UN reckons that 230 million people worldwide use illegal drugs.   Back in 1919, a well-meaning American government banned alcohol, and created a huge criminal industry.   For the last half-century, well-meaning governments across the world have done the same thing for the drugs business.

A famous British politician, Denis Healey, once said – ‘when you’re in a hole, stop digging’.  It was good advice.

War on drugs - danger of sanity outbreak

Members of Congress in Colombia are demanding the decriminalisation of some drugs.    The government and the USA oppose the move, but supporters say the ‘war on drugs’ has failed, and that the country has already paid a high enough price in blood.

Because drugs are illegal, millions of dollars flow into the hands of Latin American criminal gangs, providing most of their income.   Eight of the world’s 10 most violent countries are to be found in the region, and a mind-boggling 28,000 people are said to have been killed in Mexico’s ‘war on drugs’ over the last four years.

The US government has said decriminalisation was ‘worth discussing’, but that there was no possibility of the Americans dropping their opposition to it.   So what would be the point of talking to them, you might ask.

Even so, the hard-line president of Guatemala has announced his support for the policy, while former presidents of Brazil , Mexico and Colombia have declared the ‘war on drugs’ a failure.   At next month’s Summit of the Americas, Latin American leaders who want a change of approach will get a chance to put forward their arguments.

(See also my blogs of May 28, June 10 and 12, Aug 18, Sept 10, 2010, and March 8, 2011.)

'War on drugs' spreads

Another 18 people have been added to the death toll in Mexico’s ‘war on drugs’ as rival gangs fought gun battles in the north-eastern town of Abasolo. That brings the total number killed over the last five years to a staggering 34,000.

Now the ‘war’ is spreading, as the Mexican mafias move into neighbouring countries, such as Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. The last two now have the highest murder rates in the world.

The mobs run training camps, and recruit among ex-soldiers laid off as defence spending has been cut. Central America is reckoned to have 70,000 young people who are members of gangs.

The countries involved are among the poorest in the world, and receive little outside help. (See also my blogs of June 10,12 and Sept 10, 2010.)

The War on Drugs continued

A staggering 28,000 people have been killed in the last four years in Mexico's "war on drugs." In one of the most bizarre episodes, last month a group of prisoners in Durango was apparently released from gaol for a night so they could murder 18 guests at a party.

Now President Calderon has called for a debate on whether drugs should be legalised. Meanwhile, in California, people will vote in a referendum in November on whether to legalise and tax marijuana.

In the UK, Sir Ian Gilmore, former president of the Royal College of Physicians, has also called for drugs to be decriminalised, on the grounds that it would improve health and reduce crime. Depressingly, the government reflected for about three seconds, before dismissing the idea on the grounds that "we want to reduce drug use, crack down on drug-related crime and disorder and help addicts come off drugs for good."

It would be lovely if nobody took drugs, just as it would be lovely if nobody smoked, but millions of people do, and intelligent policy making has to start from that point. There is absolutely no evidence that the government's present policy is achieving its objectives and it is certainly generating a huge violent criminal industry. It's claimed that use of drugs in Portugal has actually fallen since they were decriminalised in 2001.

(See also my blogs of June 10 and 12.)

"War on drugs" - more victims

Another 40 deaths in Mexico’s “war on drugs”. (see my blog of June 9) More than 30 gunmen arrived in the northern city of Chihuahua in six trucks. They attacked a drug rehabilitation centre, shooting staff and patients, then fled.

Nineteen people died and four were wounded. It’s not the first time a rehabilitation centre has been targeted. Drugs traffickers complain that the clinics harbour people from rival gangs.

Further south, another 20 people were killed in Ciudad Madero on the Gulf of Mexico in a series of gun battles. An alleged leader of one of the region’s main gangs had been arrested in Monterrey. In retaliation, gunmen hijacked cars, set up roadblocks and even attacked police stations.

President Calderon said the attacks only reinforced his determination to prosecute the “war”.

"War on drugs" - Mexico

A staggering 23,000 people have been killed in the last three and a half years in Mexico’s “war on drugs.” Poor Mexico is right next door to the biggest drugs market in the world, the United States.

The “war” was declared by President Felipe Calderon when he came to power. He has bussed troops and police into cities such as Juarez, which stands on the main smuggling route, in an attempt to halt the traffic into the US. In spite of all those security forces, more than 1,000 people have been killed in the city in drugs-related violence this year, and the mayor has to drive around in a heavily armoured vehicle.

Most of those killed are aged between 14 and 24, but while Mexico sees its future bleeding away, the drugs cartels just find other paths for their product. Unemployment is high, and the gangs have no difficulty in recruiting killers for £30 a week.

As I wrote in my blog of May 28, perhaps the most depressing thing about the “war on drugs” is how little evidence there is of an intelligent debate about whether the policy makes sense.

Fatal crushes and stampedes

At least five people have been crushed to death after the sound of gunfire caused a stampede at a concert in Monterrey, northern Mexico. The city has recently been the scene of violent clashes between rival drugs gangs.

One of the worst ever fatal crushes came at Chungking in China during World War Two. The authorities had built one of the biggest air raid shelters in the world, capable of holding about 30,000.

On June 6, 1941, the Japanese bombed the city for about three hours, and during the raid the shelter’s ventilation system broke down. So while there was an apparent lull in the attack, hundreds of shelterers decided to nip outside for a breath of fresh air.

But almost immediately, the alarm sounded, so people outside tried to force their way down, causing a deadly chaotic crush in which up to 4,000 people perished. For more fatal crushes, see A Disastrous History of the World. (See also my blogs of Jan 18 and March 30, 2009)

Theatre fires

On this day…..101 years ago, up to 300 people perished in a fire at the Flores Theatre in Acapulco, Mexico. More than 1,000 people had packed the wooden building for a special show in honour of the state governor.

The fire began while they were watching a film, and it quickly spread to bunting until the whole building was alight. In the panic to escape, many people were crushed to death in addition to those who perished from fire or smoke.

According to a contemporary report, many of those killed were “from the first families of the state, the affair being a social event of considerable importance.”

The world’s deadliest theatre fire happened at Canton in China on March 5, 1845. More than 1,650 people were killed, as the theatre was completely destroyed, and the flames are said to have destroyed another 30 buildings nearby.

Swine flu v bird flu

Swine flu has now overtaken bird flu. We have had 262 deaths from bird flu (H5N1) against 382 from swine flu (H1N1). Bird flu remains far more virulent, with its 262 deaths coming from just 436 confirmed cases, while there have been nearly 90,000 cases of bird flu.

The World Health Organisation says that most people who catch swine flu can expect a mild infection from which they make a full recovery within a week, and that the main risk is to pregnant women or people with other health problems.

The virus has now spread to 100 countries, and there are some peculiarities in the figures. Argentina has had 26 deaths at a rate of about 1 for every 60 cases – the highest in the world. Mexico, where the disease first appeared, has suffered 119 deaths at about 1 in every 85 cases. The United States has the highest number of deaths – 170 – but the rate is only about 1 in 200 of those infected.

Europe has suffered much less so far. The UK has been worst hit with nearly 7,500 cases, but only four deaths – a rate of 1 in 1,875. However, the government is warning that by the end of next month, Britain could be seeing 100,000 new cases every day. Could that produce the same kind of devastating effect on public services that we saw in the great flu pandemic of 1918, when schools closed, fire stations had no firemen, buses stopped?

That epidemic was dubbed “Spanish flu”, because it was there that the world first became aware of the virus. This time around, Spain has had 760 cases and just one death. Even so, yesterday, the Spanish newspaper El Pais decided to publish the section on flu from my book A Disastrous History of the World. This is the link to the story:- http://www.elpais.com/articulo/sociedad/Fue/gripe/espanola/elpepusoc/20090704elpepusoc_2/Tes

Swine flu - not gone away

Over the last few days, some of the initial alarm about swine flu has dissipated, but now scientists from Imperial College, London have suggested that one person in three across the world could catch it. So far we know of more than 5,720 confirmed cases in 33 countries, and 61 people have died. 56 of the deaths have happened in Mexico which has had 2,059 cases. The United States has had three deaths from more than 3,000 cases, while the UK has 68 cases and no deaths.

This suggests that the virus is behaving in a much more virulent way in Mexico, where about one person in every 40 infected is dying. In the USA, the rate is more like one in a thousand. Professor Neil Ferguson, the lead investigator, has pointed out that every year about one person in ten catches seasonal flu, and up to half a million die.

In Professor Ferguson’s view, we are not facing an epidemic on the scale of 1918, when perhaps 70 million people died across the world, but he thinks we could be in for one like 1957’s “Asian flu” which killed up to four million. Science has advanced enormously since then, and we have new vaccines and anti-viral drugs to defend us. On the other hand, globalisation will allow the virus to spread much further and faster, and if 2 billion people do indeed catch swine flu, we need to be braced for many deaths.

See also my blog of April 30th.

Swine before birds

While we were all watching out for bird flu (see my blog of February 5th), swine flu has nipped in on the blindside and may inflict on the world its first flu pandemic since the one in 1968 that killed perhaps 1 million people.

We had got used to worrying about H5N1, but in fact it is a new version of H1N1 that has got the World Health Organisation to raise its alert to one notch below full pandemic status. H1N1 is the same strain that causes seasonal flu in humans fairly frequently, but this type incorporates genetic material from viruses that attack pigs and, yes, birds.

If the European Commission has its way, though, the name “swine flu” will be short-lived. They want it to be re-christened “novel flu” so it doesn’t stop people buying pork and bacon.

The outbreak seems to have begun in Mexico, where there have been 168 suspected deaths, though only 8 confirmed. Global travel has expanded enormously since the last flu pandemic, giving the virus opportunities to spread further and faster than ever before. There have already been confirmed cases in 13 countries, though only one death outside Mexico. So it is perhaps a hopeful sign that outside Mexico, the disease so far seems to have been generally mild. Touch wood!

Measles

Measles is on the increase again in Britain – with the number of cases in England and Wales rising from 990 in 2007 to at least 1,348 last year. The Health Protection Agency says the reason is that fewer people had their children vaccinated because of a scare, which most doctors now discount, over the MMR vaccine.

In 2006, a 13 year old boy became the first person to die from the virus in the UK in 14 years, and he had been taking an immunosuppressive drug. Across the world, though, the disease can be deadly and in 2007, the World Health Organisation said it had killed nearly 200,000. That in itself was a huge decrease from the figure for the year 2000 of 750,000.

As Europeans took over the world from the fifteenth century onwards, the measles virus was one of the deadliest weapons they carried with them. It was estimated to have killed two million Mexican Indians in the 1600’s, and it also cut a swath through the North American Indians. In 1847, the victims were the Cayuse Indians who lived in Oregon and Washington, and soon after they were defeated in war and confined to a reservation.

Between 1875 and 1911 three epidemics hit Fiji, after the virus was thought to have been brought to the islands by a leading local dignitary who had been to Australia to discuss handing them over to the British. The first and deadliest outbreak killed perhaps 40,000 out of a population of 150,000. The two later epidemics tended to kill young people who had been born since the previous visitation, and so had not acquired immunity.