The world's worst dam disaster

Yesterday I blogged about Britain’s worst dam disaster. The world’s worst happened in China in 1975.

As part of his ‘Great Leap Forward’ designed to enable China to become a major industrial power, Chairman Mao encouraged peasants to go off and build dams, which they did with great enthusiasm, but also with a Brexiter-like disdain for experts. So the structures were jerry-built, and within a couple of years, they were collapsing. A hydrologist who tried to sound a warning was purged for being a ‘right-wing opportunist’.

In August 1975, storms dumped heavy rain on Henan province. On 9 August, the Shimantan dam collapsed and half an hour later, the Banqiao dam gave way, unleashing a wall of water 20 feet high. In all 60 dams burst, flooding an area of 4,000 square miles.

China tried to hide the disaster from the world’s gaze, and it was 30 years before the truth began to emerge. The authorities admitted that at least 26,000 had been killed, but other estimates put the figure as high as 85,000 killed by the floods, with another 145,000 from the famine and disease that followed.

For the full story, see my book A Disastrous History of the World.

Earthquake forecasts - get it wrong, go to gaol

‘Never make predictions,’ said Sam Goldwyn, ‘especially about the future.’  In April 2009, an earthquake devastated the medieval Italian town of L'Aquila, killing more than 300 people.   This week, seven scientists were sentenced to prison terms for failing to foretell it.

The group were all members of  the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Serious Risks.   Before the disaster, there had been a number of tremors in the area, but they told officials that, although a major earthquake was possible, it was not likely. 

In court, it was said that following their assessment, many people stayed in their homes and perished, while others who decided to remain outside in the street survived.    The experts were accused of providing ‘inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory’ information.

All of them are appealing, and remain free for the moment.     The head of the commission and his deputy have both resigned in protest, saying the verdict puts scientists in an impossible position.    More than 5,000 of their colleagues have sent an open letter to the president, supporting the convicted men.