Earthquake forecasts - get it wrong, go to gaol

‘Never make predictions,’ said Sam Goldwyn, ‘especially about the future.’  In April 2009, an earthquake devastated the medieval Italian town of L'Aquila, killing more than 300 people.   This week, seven scientists were sentenced to prison terms for failing to foretell it.

The group were all members of  the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Serious Risks.   Before the disaster, there had been a number of tremors in the area, but they told officials that, although a major earthquake was possible, it was not likely. 

In court, it was said that following their assessment, many people stayed in their homes and perished, while others who decided to remain outside in the street survived.    The experts were accused of providing ‘inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory’ information.

All of them are appealing, and remain free for the moment.     The head of the commission and his deputy have both resigned in protest, saying the verdict puts scientists in an impossible position.    More than 5,000 of their colleagues have sent an open letter to the president, supporting the convicted men. 

Libya's secret disaster history

It is sixteen years since more than 1,250 inmates were gunned down at Abu Salim gaol in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, but this is the first time the Libyan people have been able to mark the anniversary.

The prisoners were killed on June 28 and 29, 1996 for protesting to demand better conditions.   Colonel Gaddafi’s brother-in-law, Abdullah al-Senussi, who is now under arrest, is accused of ordering the massacre.

While the Gaddafi regime was in power, victims’ families did not dare mark the anniversary, but now the prison has been turned into a museum where visitors can seen pictures of those killed, secret notes written by inmates and other objects from the notorious history of Abu Salim, where some were held for many years.

Although many old scores are being settled by the gun in post-revolutionary Libya, the judiciary has started prosecuting members of the former government.   Mr Senussi, is wanted by the International Criminal Court, but is currently being held by the Mauritanian authorities who have charged him with entering the country illegally.

Another prison fire

Thirteen prisoners have been killed in a fire in a gaol in south-east Turkey’s Sanliurfa province.    Another five have been injured.

According to some reports, prisoners set fire to their bedding in a protest, though this has been denied by the governor.    It took firefighters an hour and a half to put the blaze out.   An MP from the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party was among the prison’s inmates, but is not believed to have been hurt.

This year saw what was probably the deadliest prison fire in history at the Comayagua Penitentiary in Honduras, where 360 people were killed in February including inmates’ spouses on conjugal visits.

The cause of the Honduras fire is still unclear, with the authorities talking about an electrical fault while some survivors said an inmate started it.   Critics complained that Comayagua was overcrowded.

Honduras prison fire was accident

The death toll in the Honduras prison fire has now reached 359, making this probably the most disastrous prison fire in history.    Preliminary inquiries suggest that it was an accident caused by a cigarette.   Initial reports that the blaze was started deliberately are now being dismissed.

American inspectors say the gaol was overcrowded and that it contained too much inflammable material.   Relatives who stormed the morgue where the bodies of their loved ones were being held, claim to have seen evidence of bullet wounds, though the authorities have denied that any prisoners were shot.

Honduras has the highest murder rate in the world, but many of the prisoners at Comayagua had not been convicted and were awaiting trial.   Last year the US State Department said that many inmates in Honduras’s gaols suffered from malnutrition.

This is the third major prison fire in the country in just 9 years    In 2003, 70 inmates were killed at another prison, and in 2004 the death toll was more than 100 at a third.    Human Rights Watch say that following the fires: ‘everybody feels pretty sorry for a few days.’    Then presumably the feeling passes.

Honduras prison fire worst ever?

Perhaps the deadliest prison fire in history has claimed the lives of at least 300 inmates at Comayagua in Honduras.    A further 56 of the 853 prisoners are still missing.

The fire broke out late on Tuesday night, and it took more than an hour before it was brought under control.  The cause is still unknown.  Dozens of prisoners died trapped in their cells while police fired tear gas at relatives who tried to force their way in. 

Firefighters say they were unable to free inmates because they did not have keys to their cells and they could not find the guards who did.  The Honduran President has promised a 'full and transparent' investigation.

The disaster looks set to become the deadliest prison fire ever.    The worst until now happened in America’s Ohio State Penitentiary at Columbus, where more than 320 inmates were killed in 1930.

(see also my blog of Dec 9, 2010)