Once we
decided to leave, we could try to stay close to the EU, which would mean
obeying most of its rules. Or we could have a more distant relationship which
would make us poorer.
Boris
Johnson and the Conservatives did not find this a very attractive choice, and
have tried to shirk it for the last three and a half years by claiming there
was some kind of magic have-our-cake-and-eat-it solution.
Johnson’s
dishonesty, short-termism and general fecklessness has now left him painted into
a very fight corner where the choice is between a rotten deal that makes trade
with the EU a lot more difficult and the UK a lot poorer, and no-deal which
makes trade even more difficult and the UK even poorer.
(Theresa
May’s deal would have made us about 3% worse off than remaining; Boris
Johnson’s deal (if he could get it accepted by the EU) would make us about 4%
poorer, while no-deal would carry an eye-watering 8% penalty.)
He was
supposed to finally take a decision between these unpalatable options
yesterday, but once again he bottled it. But the decision and the abandonment
of cake-and-eat-it can’t be put off beyond 31 December, unless Johnson takes another
unpalatable action: seeking the extension to transition that he said would
never happen ‘in any circumstances’, and which would enrage the Brexit fanatics
who maintain him in power.
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