The benefits of storms

Thirty years after the Great Storm of 1987 - Britain's worst since 1703 - it is worth considering some of the benefits of storms. It is a topic I tackle in my book Storm: Nature and Culture.

The tempest brought down about 15 million trees in Britain, and in one place that had been badly hit, Toys Hill in Kent, the National Trust did an experiment. One area was cleared and replanted, while an other was left alone so nature could take its course. This one did better, producing a far wider variety of trees and flowers.

In the US, some scientists said that while storms like Sandy and 'Snowtober' also felled trees, they too brought an explosion of biodiversity in animals, birds, insects, plants and fungi. Another benefit claimed for storms is that native species tend to survive them better than imported ones.

Lightning can liberate nitrogen atoms in the air which fall to the earth with water and act as natural fertilisers. While fires started by strikes clear undergrowth and debris from woods, turning it into nutrients, and they allow sunlight and water to penetrate through to germinating seeds on the forest floor.

For more, see Storm: Nature and Culture, published by Reaktion Books.

Gorden Kaye and the Burns' Day Storm

Yesterday the death was announced of the actor Gorden Kaye, aged 75, star of the tv series 'Allo, 'Allo, while tomorrow sees the 27th anniversary of the Burns' Day storm of 25 January 1990.

The connection between these two events is that Kaye was injured in the storm when a plank of wood from an advertising hoarding crashed through the windscreen of his car near his home at Hounslow, causing him serious head injuries.

Gusts of 87 miles an hour were recorded in London. Many buildings had their roofs torn off, and cars were crushed by fallen trees. Docklands, then a major building site, was particularly badly hit as construction materials were flung about.

Although the winds were not as strong as they had been during the Great Storm of 1987, the death toll of 47 was much higher because the tempest struck during the day when people were out and about, while the Great Storm did its work at night. For more, see London's Disasters: from Boudicca to the Banking Crisis (Reaktion).

*19 January 2017 saw the 100th anniversary of London's Silvertown explosion, which killed 73 people. This article on the blast draws heavily on London's Disasters.  https://wcclibraries.wordpress.com/

How to avoid an economic disaster - Grexit

In 2010, I wrote about financial disasters – the South Sea Bubble, the bear market of 1972-4, the Great Crash of 1987, and the banking crisis that began in 2007 – for my book, London’s Disasters. Now I’m watching another – the attempt to keep Greece in the Eurozone.

Greece only got into the euro thanks to some heroic book cooking, but as long as the world economy kept growing, no one worried. A bit like the South Sea Company. It was worthless, but as long as the share price kept going up, everything was fine. But bad times reveal the truth, and the house of cards comes crashing down.

Over the last five years, more than €200 billion has been spent trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone. But you cannot make water flow uphill. Greece cannot pay its existing debts. Loading it with more debt would be crazy. Grexit will not be easy, but the alternative is worse. The sooner Greece leaves the euro, the better it will be for Greece and for the rest of Europe.

Greece cannot live with the euro rate of exchange. It desperately needs a devaluation. That cannot happen inside the euro. It is time to stop throwing good money after bad.

Simon Jenkins argues the case well - http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/08/greece-catastrophe-eurozone-grexit-default

Far eastern ferry disasters

The agony goes on for those with loved ones aboard the South Korean ferry, Sewol, that capsized off the island of Jindo three days ago. About 200 ships, 34 aircraft and 600 divers have been taking part in the search operation, but conditions are difficult, and so far only 26 bodies have been recovered.

The official death toll is still only 58, but another 244 people are missing, and it will be regarded as a miracle if any are found alive. 174 are known to have survived. About 350 of those on board were from a school in Seoul and were on their way to the holiday island of Jeju.

The 69 year old captain and two other crew members have been arrested, including the third mate, Park Hyun-kul, who he had left in charge of the ship. She has been at sea for just one year, and has never before navigated the complex cluster of islands where the ship went down.

Coastguards have pointed to a sharp turn that she made as the cause of the disaster. The captain has also been heavily criticised for delaying an evacuation of the ship.

The deadliest peace time maritime disaster ever came just before Christmas 1987 when the Philippines ferry, Dona Paz, collided with a tanker, caught fire and sank. Up to 4,375 people perished.

Ferry disasters

A search is still on for survivors from a ferry that capsized during a storm on the Brahmaputra river in India's Assam state.    At least 103 are believed to have been drowned, and another 100 are still missing.

Police said the ferry broke in two after capsizing, and many of the victims were swept away by the river’s strong currents.    One survivor said he managed to cling on to a log and was then rescued by local people.

Many ferries on the river are considered to have poor safety standards and accidents are common.    According to one police officer, the ferry was overloaded with people and goods, and it carried no lifeboats or life jackets.

Probably the worst ferry disaster, and the worst peacetime maritime disaster ever, was the sinking of the Dona Paz in the Philippines in 1987, in which up to 4,300 people drowned.  (See also my blogs of Aug 7, Sept 6 and 26, Nov 18 and Dec 30, 2009.)

Financial disasters 2 - stock market crashes

The worst two Stock Market crashes in the UK both happened within the last 40 years. From 1972 to 1974, the market lost 70% of its value. Investor confidence was undermined by a spate of bad news, particularly the oil embargo and four-fold price increase that followed Israel’s Yom Kippur War with Egypt.

The market did not recover the ground it had lost in real terms until May 1987. Then five months later, it crashed again. On Friday, 16 October, 1987 hardly anyone was at work in London’s City financial district because of the disruption caused by the Great Storm, the worst in Britain for more than 280 years.

While they were away, prices in New York had been falling steeply. The reasons are not altogether clear - a drop in the price of the dollar, poor trade figures, just that headless chicken panic that seems to grip markets every so often? Anyway, by the time London opened on Monday, 19 October, there was huge pent-up demand to sell. £50 billion was wiped off share prices, and the date went down in history as ‘Black Monday’.

The next day’s collapse was even more precipitous, and by November 9, the index had fallen 34%. The main blame was put on ‘programme trading’ which meant that computers automatically sold shares when they dropped to a certain level, though others thought Mrs Thatcher’s ‘Big Bang’ deregulation had also played its part.

Financial disasters

Apologies for the silence over the last few days. I have been updating The Disastrous History of London which will appear, with a new title, later in the year.

The main update covers the London bombings of July 7, 2005, which happened after the book was written. I have also added a fresh chapter on financial disasters, which includes the South Sea Bubble of 1720, the stock market crashes of the early 1970’s and of 1987 (“Black Monday”) and the banking crisis of the last couple of years.

The South Sea Bubble is great fun to write about – a story full of fascinating characters like the wonderfully named Sir John Blunt of the Sword Blade Company, who played a key role in ramping the share price through misinformation and bribery. Then, among those who made a mint were two mistresses of King George I – one enormously fat, the other spectacularly thin.

As with house prices in the banking crisis, so long as the South Sea Company share price kept climbing, the powers that be never noticed there was a problem. And, in spite of the havoc that its collapse wrought, the company carried on happily for another 130 years. Who would bet against the same thing happening with the banks today?

Lockerbie - no cover-up!

So we may never know the truth about Lockerbie. Last month, it was revealed that the only man ever convicted for Britain’s worst ever terrorist outrage, Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, might be freed on compassionate grounds.

Now, what do you know? He has applied to withdraw his appeal against conviction. You can hardly blame al-Megrahi for doing whatever it takes to get home to Libya when he has terminal prostate cancer, but there are serious doubts about whether he really committed the crime (see my blog of July 27). His conviction looked to many like a sordid political stitch-up, and his release seems to be heading the same way.

The Scottish Conservatives’ justice spokesman Bill Aitken says there’s been too much in the way of "secret briefings, hints of special deals and international cloak and dagger." Hear! Hear! All of us have a right to know who really bombed Flight 103. It would be intolerable if al-Megrahi’s release were to be used to silence any further investigation.

Ferry disasters

More than 60 people are now feared to have drowned after the ferry Princess Ashika capsized off Tonga. There were 117 people aboard, and most of the victims are thought to be among those sleeping in cabins below deck – mainly women and children.

The vessel had been on its way from the capital Nuku'alofa to some of the country’s outlying northern islands. The cause of the shipwreck is not yet known, but the Tongan government said the ferry had passed safety inspections.

The world’s worst ferry disaster – indeed, its worst peacetime maritime disaster – was the sinking of the Doňa Paz in the Philippines just before Christmas 1987, after a collision with a tanker. Both vessels caught fire, and just two of the crew and 24 passengers were picked up by another ferry in the area.

No one knows exactly how many people drowned. According to the ship’s manifest, it was carrying 1,568 passengers, but often only the head of a family was counted, nor did the crew appear to have collected the names of people who bought tickets after boarding. So most estimates put the number drowned at between 3,000 and 4,375. For the story see A Disastrous History of the World.