Not so long ago, the main interest
of the Tory Party was winning elections. And they were rather good at it, so
that of the first 50 years of my life, 39 were lived under Conservative
governments. Their next (and closely related) big interest was running the
economy efficiently.
In that Tory party, Theresa May,
who called a completely unnecessary election and threw away a parliamentary
majority, would not have lasted five minutes. But the modern Tory party seems quite
uninterested in the economy or winning elections. Indeed, the only Conservative
leader who has won one in the last 25 years was dumped barely a year later.
So in this new Tory party, expect
to see Theresa May stay on for at least another couple of years. She has a
crucial job – scapegoat. The vast majority of Tory MPs (including, I suspect, a
number of those shouting loudly for Brexit) know that leaving the EU will be a
disaster. So it is vital that May stays in office until Brexit is completed and
all doubt about its disastrous consequences dispelled. Then she can be blamed
for the disaster and cast aside, so that a new leader can fight the next
general election.
But there is another reason why May
is likely to stay. At the moment, It would be hard to prevent any Tory
leadership election from turning into open war between supporters of moderate
and extreme Brexit. But once we have left the EU, the question of how damaging a
Brexit we choose will have been resolved, and with a bit of luck there will seem
to be no point re-fighting old battles.
Whether any of this will save the
Tories is another matter. With Labour finally threatening to show some common
sense, Brexit is likely to be seen increasingly as a Conservative project. And
the unprecedented incompetence with which it is being executed could do
permanent damage to the Tory brand.
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