Electionwatch: the latest Great Brexit Lie

The whole Brexit project was and is based on lies, and one particular lie is now central to Boris Johnson’s campaign – that electing him as prime minister will ‘get Brexit done’ and that the country will then be able to forget about it.

Why anyone would believe anything Mr Johnson says is a mystery to me, but apparently some people do, so let everyone understand that the one thing a Tory win will not do is ‘get Brexit done’.

Let’s assume Johnson gets a majority. He then presumably brings his ‘deal’ back to parliament. It passed second reading once with a majority of 30, but with Brexit, the devil is in the detail. When the UK decided to join the EU nearly half a century ago, MPs gave approval by a much bigger majority – 112, but when the detail was voted on, the margin shrank to 8 votes, so Johnson is likely to be extremely vulnerable.

If MPs decide to do their job and read the legislation properly, there will be lots of amendments and, bearing in mind his ‘deal’ is even worse than Theresa May’s, on some of them Johnson is likely to be defeated – People’s Vote, giving MPs control over negotiations? Which, is why he pulled his ‘deal’ from parliamentary scrutiny in the first place.

That is obstacle one. But let’s assume Johnson clears that and gets his deal through parliament. Brexit done and dusted? No way. Far from being the end of anything, that is just the start of a long and complex negotiation of a new trade deal with the EU.

It took Canada seven years to reach agreement with the EU. Some people will tell you the UK can do a deal much quicker, but they tend to be the same people who promised that we would be able to have our cake and eat it, that the Withdrawal Agreement would be the easiest negotiation in history, that Brexit would make us richer not poorer etc, etc.

All their promises have turned out to be worthless. And the UK’s position is fatally weakened by the Brexiters’ inability to agree on what they want: no deal, May’s deal, Johnson’s deal, soft Brexit, hard Brexit. They fooled you once. Are you really going to fall for it again?

Far from ‘getting Brexit done’, uncertainty will rule for years with Johnson landing the UK with a whole new set of nail-biting cliff edges. 31 January - if we have not agreed a deal, we will have to ask for another extension or leave without a deal. If Johnson can negotiate that obstacle, the UK goes into a transition period. By 1 July, Johnson has to decide whether he wants to extend that beyond the current end date of 31 December 2020. If he agrees, and if the EU agrees, the next cliff edge comes on 31 December 2022. At every cliff edge, a disastrous no-deal with food, medicine and fuel shortages looms.

Meanwhile, Scotland, Northern Ireland and probably Wales will be determinedly fighting Johnson’s plan to take them out of the EU against their will.

There’s as much chance of a Johnson victory ‘getting Brexit done’ as there is of me playing centre forward for England. If you want to stop Brexit dominating our politics for the foreseeable future, the only way is to stop Brexit altogether.

Brexitwatch: should we be downhearted?

It looks pretty bleak, doesn't it? The great Brexit lie deliverer, Boris Johnson, is prime minister. The great Brexit lie inventor, Dominic Cummings, is his right-hand man. The cabinet is packed with incompetents like disgraced former International Development Secretary Priti Patel, and Dominic 'I'm not up to the Brexit job' Raab, and the only qualification for membership appears to be having sworn that: 'I will never question anything Boris Johnson says or does.'

But....this surely represents the last throw of the dice for the Brexit-ers. If the UK does not leave the EU on October 31 as Johnson has now repeatedly promised, then surely the Brexit game is up, and we won't be leaving at all, or at the very least, we will be having a People's Vote.

The moment of truth should have come in 2016, and would have done

probably, if Johnson hadn't chickened out of the leadership race. Well now it's here. So are we downhearted? No. 

Let's not leave the field to the gloomsters of the Brexit faction: who think Britain isn't up to the challenge of competing with other European countries and that we have to hide behind barriers, who think the contintentals are cleverer than us and will always outmanouevre us if we stay as EU members. That we have to accept being poorer and less influential in the world. Let's fight, fight and fight again to save the UK!

Brexitwatch: Write to Labour

It's being reported that Labour has omitted any mention of a referendum on any Brexit terms - a 'People's Vote' - from its European elections leaflets, because it got 'forgotten'. (It's the second time Labour has used this excuse).

I've written to Labour's Deputy Leader, Tom Watson, (team@tom-watson.com) to protest and to say that I will not vote for Labour unless it stops helping the Tory government to drag us out of the EU.

Dear Mr Watson

I am bitterly disappointed to learn that the Labour Party's election leaflet for the European elections contains no mention of a People's Vote.. This is deeply foolish as well as duplicitous. After the 2017 General Election, Labour betrayed its voters by claiming that voting Labour meant they backed Brexit. Many will not be fooled again. I will believe the party is committed to a referendum on any Brexit terms, including an option to remain, only when I hear it unequivocally from the mouth of Jeremy Corbyn himself.

And when I hear alleged Labour MPs like Caroline Flint singing the praises of Theresa May's blind Brexit when even Nigel Farage admits it is worse than staying in the EU, words fail me.

If we leave the EU, I will not forgive Labour.

There is no longer any justification for Brexit:

1. Any Brexit will damage the UK and particularly the people Labour is supposed to care most about.

2. The referendum result is null and void as it was won by lies, cheating and criminality. (I have taken this up with my MP, Sir Keir Starmer on a number of occasions and I am bitterly disappointed that Labour has tried to sweep it under the carpet - an act of foolishness and cowardice that will haunt the party for a very long time.)

3. The Brexit that was promised is not being and cannot be delivered, and there is no mandate for either of the available Brexits - Theresa May's blind Brexit or 'no deal'.

Labour's half-hearted opposition to the right wing Brexit coup has been a dreadful stain on the party's reputation, and if we are now dragged out of the EU, I will regard Labour as being as much to blame as the Tories. I trust you will now do whatever is necessary to stop it.

If we do leave, I will not forget, and I will do everything I can to help defeat Labour in all subsequent elections.

There is still time to do the right thing, but it is fast running out.

Yours sincerely,

John Withington

Brexitwatch: People's Vote - write to the Labour Party chairman

One of the most painful aspects of Brexit is listening to unscrupulous Labour Party spokespeople tying themselves in knots of bewildering complexity as they try to avoid answering the simple question: 'Does Labour back a referendum on any Brexit terms that are agreed?'

It is being reported that one of the main opponents of a People's Vote is Labour chairman Ian Lavery, the MP for Wansbeck. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/06/labour-chairman-attacks-corbyn-over-second-referendum-plan

If you want a referendum, write to him at ian.lavery.mp@parliament.uk.

This is what I have sent him. Feel free to borrow, adapt, etc

Dear Mr Lavery,

I am writing to you in your capacity as chairman of the Labour Party. I read that you are doing everything you can to prevent the British people being allowed to vote on the terms under which they are dragged out of the EU. 

Well, if we leave the EU, I will not forgive Labour.

There is no longer any justification for Brexit:

1. Any Brexit will damage the UK and particularly the people Labour is supposed to care most about.

2. The referendum result is null and void as it was won by lies, cheating and criminality. (I am bitterly disappointed that Labour has tried to sweep this under the carpet - an act of foolishness and cowardice that will haunt the party for a very long time.)

3. The Brexit that people voted for is not being and cannot be delivered. 

Labour's half-hearted opposition to the right wing Brexit coup has been a dreadful stain on the party's reputation, and if we are now dragged out of the EU, I will regard Labour as being as much to blame as the Tories. I trust the party will now do whatever is necessary to stop it.

If we do leave, I will not forget, and I will do everything I can to help defeat Labour in all subsequent elections.

There is still time to do the right thing, but it is fast running out.

Yours sincerely,

John Withington

Brexitwatch: MPs determine our fate. Write to yours

It's great that two million marched in London and that nearly five million have signed the petition to revoke Article 50, but don't forget that MPs have already ignored another huge march for a 'People's Vote' on the Brexit terms and the four million plus people who signed a petition for a second referendum.

I have always believed that Brexit will be defeated only when MPs begin to think supporting it will damage their careers. So if your MP has not done everything in his/her power to fight Brexit so far, write to them NOW and say that if the UK leaves the EU you will hold them and their party responsible, and you will work to ensure their defeat at all future elections. If they are entrenched Brexiters, write anyway. They can still count.

My MP happens to be Labour's Brexit spokesperson, Sir Keir Starmer, and this is what I have written to him: 

Dear Sir Keir,

I was bitterly disappointed to see the Labour Party trying to sabotage the People's Vote march. This is deeply foolish as well as duplicitous. As for hearing Caroline Flint singing the praises of Theresa May's blind Brexit when even Nigel Farage admits it is worse than staying in the EU, words fail me.

If we now leave the EU, I will not forgive Labour.

There is no longer any justification for Brexit:

1. Any Brexit will damage the UK and particularly the people Labour is supposed to care most about.

2. The referendum result is null and void as it was won by lies, cheating and criminality. (I am bitterly disappointed that Labour has tried to sweep this under the carpet - an act of foolishness and cowardice that will haunt the party for a very long time.)

3. The Brexit that was promised is not being and cannot be delivered, and there is no mandate for either of the available Brexits - Theresa May's blind Brexit or 'no deal'.

Labour's half-hearted opposition to the right wing Brexit coup has been a dreadful stain on the party's reputation, and if we are now dragged out of the EU, I will regard Labour as being as much to blame as the Tories. I trust you will now do whatever is necessary to stop it.

If we do leave, I will not forget, and I will do everything I can to help defeat Labour in all subsequent elections.

There is still time to do the right thing, but it is fast running out.

Yours sincerely,

John Withington

Brexitwatch: write to Labour's UKIP tendency MPs

Labour supports a 'People's Vote' - a referendum on the terms of Brexit - apparently. The party demonstrated its support this week by refusing to vote in favour of an amendment in parliament to secure, er, a People's Vote!

Most Labour MPs abstained, but 17 of the party's UKIP 5th column actually voted with Theresa May's Tories aginst the motion. They included former shadow ministers Yvonne Fovargue, Emma Lewell-Buck, and Justin Madders, plus former party whip Stephanie Peacock, and Stoke-on-Trent North MP, Ruth Smeeth, former parliamentary aide to deputy leader Tom Watson.

Ms Smeeth said: 'I have a duty to support the will of my constituents. We need to leave, and leave with a deal that works for the Potteries,' thus illustrating her ignorance of both an MP's duty and of the effect Brexit will have on her constituents.

This is what I have written to her:

Dear Ms Smeeth,

There is no Brexit that 'works for the Potteries'. Indeed, the West Midlands will be the hardest hit region in the whole UK, except for the North-East. https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2018/03/26/brexit-will-negatively-affect-all-regions-of-the-uk-but-the-north-east-is-most-vulnerable/

As an MP, your duty is not to 'support the will' of your constituents but to do 1) the best thing for your country then 2) the best thing for your constituents. So it is your duty to now tell your constituents the truth and fight with all your might against the Far Right Brexit coup, which will cause terrible damage to them and the UK. 

Anyway, you have no idea what 'the will' of your consituents is, because the Brexit they voted for is not being, and cannot be delivered. The referendum was advisory. It was won by gerrymandering the electorate, lying, cheating and criminality. It is profoundly undemocratic to 'respect' the result, which is in any case completely irrelevant to the circumstances in which we now find ourselves.

If Labour betrays our young people and the future of our country, it will never be forgiven. If you tell the truth, some of your constituents may be cross, but it is your duty. If you are not prepared to discharge that duty, you must resign.

Yours sincerely,

John Withington

Brexitwatch: Labour MPs are helping the far right Brexit coup: stop them

This week, 14 Labour MPs could have stopped the disaster of the UK leaving the EU with no deal. But they chose not to. Instead they decided to vote with Theresa May's disgraceful government, and run the risk of food and medicine shortages, crippling of UK industry and maybe martial law. They were

·         Ian Austin, Dudley North

·         Sir Kevin Barron, Rother Valley

·         Ronnie Campbell, Blyth Valley

·         Rosie Cooper, West Lancashire

·         Jim Fitzpatrick, Poplar and Limehouse

·         Caroline Flint, Don Valley

·         Roger Godsiff, Birmingham Hall Green

·         Stephen Hepburn, Jarrow

·         Kate Hoey, Vauxhall

·         John Mann, Bassetlaw

·         Dennis Skinner, Bolsover

·         Laura Smith, Crewe and Nantwich

·         Gareth Snell, Stoke-on-Trent Central

·         Graham Stringer, Blackley and Broughton

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/14-labour-mps-rebel-to-vote-against-cooperboles-amendment-a4052526.html

I am going to write to each one of them to try to point out the error of their ways. If you think they are wrong, it is important that you do too. 

Below is the email I am sending them (it is easy to find their email addresses via Google or the House of Commons website).

Dear    ,

You seem to have persuaded yourself that making your constituents and the country poorer and robbing young people of their opportunities is somehow your duty. It is not.

Any Brexit makes the country poorer, and will especially damage those Labour is supposed to care most about, and yet you appear to believe you have to 'implement' the result of the 2016 referendum.

Unfortunately, the result of the referendum cannot be 'implemented' because the Brexit that was promised is not being and cannot ever be delivered. The only Brexits on offer are Theresa May's blind Brexit and no deal. Neither of these was offered by the Leave campaign, and it is clear from the way that Brexiters slag each of them off, that if either had been offered, it would have been comprehensively defeated by Remain. 

In addition, the referendum was won by lies, cheating and law-breaking and by gerrymandering the electorate so that millions of people who might be expected to vote Remain were systematically excluded. It is a terrible blot on parliament's reputation that most MPs have deliberately ignored this. If the referendum had been a council by-election, the result would have been declared null and void months ago.

And finally, parliament decided explicitly that the referendum should be advisory and non-binding on MPs. As you know, it is the first duty of all MPs to act in the national interest. The referendum gave bad advice and it is your job to reject it.

I find myself astonished that a Labour MP could somehow believe it's a good idea to rob our young people of their future. Even if you don't care about your country, what about your party? Why make enemies of tomorrow's voters? There is no credible alternative for the UK to membership of the EU. Those of us who can see that, and judging by most opinion polls, that now means the majority of the population, will never forgive the political party or parties that drag us out. 

Brexit is a far right wing coup and no Labour MP has any business helping Theresa May's disgraceful government help to mount it.

If MPs don't have the guts to call off Brexit, the obvious thing is to ask the 'people' in a referendum whether they will accept such Brexit terms that parliament may be able to agree to or whether they want to remain in the EU. Some MPs have been arguing this would be 'divisive'. I disagree, but if you are one of this group, in the spirit of compromise that has been sadly lacking in our politics, I propose the following:

The government should immediately revoke Article 50 because nothing sensible can be achieved by the self-imposed deadline of March 29 that MPs foolishly voted for. Parliament should then set up a grand committee of all MPs who support Brexit. (This might simply be self-selected or it might be limited to those MPs who have spoken in the Commons in favour of it.)

That committee would then be given the task of deciding what Brexiters want, and devising a plan to be put to parliament. Once MPs had agreed the plan was credible, would not damage our country, and had a good chance of being accepted by the EU, it would then be put to the government, which would then report to parliament on how it proposed to proceed.

Of course, if you use your vote in the national interest, some Leave supporters in your constituency will be cross, but that is your job. If you are unable to discharge this duty, you should resign at once, and make way for someone who will.

Don't make Labour the enemy of tomorrow's voters. We're not going away.

Brexitwatch: get your MP to support the real opposition

Labour want a People's Vote on the Brexit terms only if they cannot get a general election. They could try to get a general election by moving a motion of 'no confidence' in Theresa May's government, but this they refuse to do. So hey presto! Labour can avoid supporting a People's Vote.

Is this because Jeremy Corbyn and his circle are as desperate as Theresa May to push Brexit through in the face of mounting opposition from the majority in the country? I do not know, but I do know that the SNP, the LibDems, the Greens, and Plaid Cymru increasingly look like the real opposition.

They have put down a motion of no confidence in the government. Write to your MP and demand they support it. This is what I have sent to mine who happens to be Labour's Brexit spokesperson, Sir Keir Starmer:-

Dear Sir Keir,

Having refused to try to help the British people yourselves, I trust you and all Labour MPs will be supporting the motion of no confidence in the government brought forward by the SNP, LibDems, Plaid Cymru and Greens. Or are you just going to go on sitting on your hands so Jeremy Corbyn can help the Tories push through his beloved Brexit?

I trust also that Labour MPs will NOT be taking their Christmas holidays but will be staying at Westminster, with or without government approval, to explore what you can do to save our country.

I look forward to hearing from you,

John Withington

Brexitwatch: the alternative to a People's Vote

Brexiters like Theresa May claim that holding a referendum on the terms of Brexit will be a 'betrayal'. Regular readers of this blog will know I regard this excuse as hypocritical poppycock, but I would like to try to bring the country together, so I offer an alternative route out of the Brexit quagmire in which the UK is currently stuck.

The government should immediately revoke Article 50 because nothing sensible can be achieved by Theresa May's foolishly self-imposed deadline of March 29. Parliament should then set up a grand committee of all MPs who support Brexit. (This might simply be self-selected or it might be limited to those MPs who have spoken in the Commons in favour of it.)

That committee would then be given the task of deciding what the Brexiters want, and devising a plan to be put to parliament. Once MPs had agreed the plan was credible, and had a good chance of being accepted by the EU, it would then be put to the government. Parliament, hopefully, would also consider it against other criteria such as, for example, how much damage it would do to our country.

The government would then consider the proposals, and report to parliament on its suggestion as to how to proceed.

Brexitwatch: complaint to Channel 4 about Brexit bias

Channel 4 are planning to mount 'The Real Brexit Debate' tonight at 1900. It will be heavily biased in favour of Brexit, with three Brexiters on the panel to just one Remainer. It you think this is unacceptable, complain to Channel 4.  

https://www.channel4.com/4viewers/contact-us

This is what I have sent:

According to Krishnan Guru-Murthy, you are planning to load the panel with pro-Brexiters for 'The Real Brexit Debate' on C4 tomorrow at 7pm. It will comprise supporters of 'Theresa May’s Deal, a softer Corbyn Brexit, a harder Mogg/Johnson Brexit and a PeoplesVote to Remain'. In other words three Brexiters to one anti-Brexiter, when those who oppose Brexit make up at least half of the country. This bias is inexcusable. I look forward to your ensuring the panel is balanced between pro and anti-Brexit spokespeople. You have, for example, no one to speak for the view that the we should withdraw Article 50 immediately, nor anyone to speak for Scotland which voted to Remain.

Brexitwatch: write to your MP NOW

It feels as though the Brexit phoney war is finally over. I know there are rumours that Theresa May may try to kick the can even further down the road, but don't count on it. The big debate is finally on. If you want to stop Brexit or at least get a referendum on Theresa May's 'deal' (which, of course, isn't a deal at all but a wish list to try to negotiate with the EU over the next decade or so), you need to write to your MP NOW.

My MP happens to be Sir Keir Starmer, Labour's Brexit spokesperson. This is what I have sent to him:

Dear Sir Keir,

There is no longer any excuse for proceeding with Brexit, and in any proper democracy, it would have been buried long ago.

1. It will make the UK poorer, and damage most the people Labour is supposed to care most about.

2. It will make the UK weaker on the international stage.

3. It will hand a victory to those who stoke the fires of intolerance and xenophobia.

4. The referendum which is being used as the excuse for pursuing it was won by lies, cheating and law-breaking and was in any case advisory and non-binding.

5. The Brexit that people voted for cannot and will not be delivered.

Following your promise of June 29 that Labour would vote against any deal that failed to satisfy your six tests, I assume that you and all your Labour colleagues will be voting against Theresa May's so-called 'deal'. I trust also that firm disciplinary action will be taken against any Labour MPs who continue to try to prop her up.

Labour should now be working to bring this sorry story to a close at once before it does any more damage to our jobs, rights and public services, by demanding the immediate withdrawal of Article 50. If you and your colleagues do not have the stomach for this, then I trust you will at least support the demand for a referendum on the Prime Minister's terms, with Remain as an option on the ballot paper.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Yours sincerely,

John Withington

Brexitwatch: a time to write

To everything there is a season. And this is the season to write, write and write again to your MP, the Prime Minister, or any other senior figure you think needs a nudge in the right direction. 

The Brexiters are on the run. Look at how they cannot get the votes to challenge Theresa May, look at how cabinet minister Amber Rudd says the Brexit fanatics' favourite 'no deal' is a dead duck. And what of May herself? After years of pretending we will leave the EU at the end of March come hell or high water, she has now admitted there may be 'no Brexit at all'.

MPs are now starting to look nervously over their shoulders. What if Brexit happens and goes as badly as you would expect? When will 'I voted for Brexit' start becoming a toxic, perhaps career-ending label? Hansard helpfully lists how every MP voted in every division. The fanatics probably will not care, but lots of MPs who have been backing Brexit, or failing to obstruct it, because they wanted a quiet life, must now be getting very worried. Make them realise they will not escape responsibility.

And what if there is an Iraq-style inquiry into who was to blame for the Brexit disaster? They may be putting a brave face on it, but there are some very nervous politicians around. So write, write and write again. Don't let anyone have the excuse: 'I did not realise'.

Brexitwatch: Get your council to fight for a People's Vote

The Scottish Parliament has become the latest democratic body to support the demand for a 'People's Vote' referendum on any Brexit terms that Theresa May may secure. Other supporters include trade unions and local councils, including a dozen London boroughs. More, including Brent, Islington, Kingston, Redbridge and Southwark are due to decide whether to join up soon. My own council, Camden, is due to take a view on Monday.

Below is the email I have sent to my local councillors. Please note: it is crucial that any vote contains a 'Remain' option. Without it, any referendum will be a sham.

Dear Councillors,

I understand that the council is deciding on November 12 whether to join the many democratic bodies now demanding that there be a 'People's Vote' referendum on any exit arrangement negotiated by the government with the EU.

I trust you will support this demand, and that you will also insist that any vote must include a 'Remain' option. Without that, any vote will plainly be an undemocratic sham.

If I were to list all the reasons why you should support a People's Vote, you would not have time to read them, but here are just a few:

1. Any Brexit will seriously damage the UK, and particularly the people Labour is supposed to care about.

2. The people of Camden are aware of this and overwhelmingly reject Brexit.

3. The Brexit promised by the Leave campaign cannot and will not be delivered.

4. The referendum of 2016 was won by lies, criminality, gerrymandering of the electorate etc.

History will judge very harshly those who supported, facilitated or failed to do their best to stop Brexit. Don't be one of them. Do the right thing.

Yours sincerely

John Withington

Brexitwatch: London demands a People's Vote

If you wrote to your London Assembly member asking them to back a referendum on the terms of the UK leaving the EU (see my posts of Sept 2 and 3), well done! In spite of the opposition of Conservative and UKIP members, the Assembly decided to back democracy, and today mayor Sadiq Khan has added his voice to the demand for a People's Vote. 

Writing endless letters and emails is often frustrating, but it does work. My own belief is that Brexit will only be stopped when most MPs start to believe their careers will be damaged more by dragging us out of the EU than by letting us stay in it. Every anti-Brexit letter or email they receive helps to bring them to that conclusion.

Regular readers of this blog will know I reject the 'People's Will' argument. The referendum was advisory and explicitly non-binding on MPs. It offered bad advice and it was the duty of MPs to reject it in the national interest (see my post of March 29 etc).

But even if you accept the argument, it is clear the 'People's Will' has changed, with some polls suggesting 59% would now support staying in the EU. The New European has an interesting figure. 

MPs decided to prevent 16 and 17 year olds from voting in the referendum even though they were going to have to live with its consequences longer than the people who were allowed to vote. About 1.5 million of them turn 18 between the referendum in June 2016 and March 29 next year when we are due to leave the EU. More than 80% of them want to stay. Don't give up the fight. Stop Brexit.

Brexitwatch: A modern Conservative writes

On Friday 31 August, I posted an email I had sent to Labour and Conservative members of the London Assembly to urge them to support a People's Vote on the final Brexit terms in Thursday's vote (6 Sept).

So far I have received one reply - from Conservative member, Susan Hall. It is notable for not addressing any of the points I raised, and being based on no evidence except her 'full confidence that all will work out well.' Good to know we have such deep thinkers as our elected representatives.

You can see my original letter in my post of 31 August. Below is her response and my reply to it.

Hello Mr. Withington,

Thank you for your letter. I am afraid I disagree with you. The Government is trying to fulfil the request resulting from the referendum. Thus hopefully we will leave the EU and I have full confidence that all will work out well, and in accordance with the majority of those who voted.

Kind regards,

Susan

Dear Ms Hall, thank you for your prompt response. Is this really the best the modern Conservative Party can do?

You have not dealt with the points I raised, but I have come to expect that from Brexit supporters.

So let me ask you a few quick questions:-

1. We know the Leave campaign cheated in the referendum, but you are plainly not concerned about this. So how much cheating on the part of the Leave campaign would have to be established for you to say the 'result' could not be regarded as valid? Or would any amount of cheating be all right in your view?

2. We also know from your government's own figures, that any Brexit leaves us worse off. How big would the loss have to be for you to say we must not proceed with Brexit? Or would no loss be great enough to bring you to this conclusion?

3. You have 'full confidence that all will work out well', so if it proves that you are wrong and Brexit does make us poorer, do you promise to resign?

I look forward to hearing from you.

Yours sincerely,

John Withington

Brexitwatch: make UKIP honour its promise

On Thursday (6 Sept), the London Assembly votes on whether to throw its weight behind a People's Vote. On Friday (31 Aug) I posted an email I had written to Labour and Conservative members, but if you are a Londoner, you are also represented by two UKIP members, who are elected as 'Londonwide' members. So don't leave them out!

During the referendum campaign, Nigel Farage said that if the margin of victory was as narrow as 52% to 48% there would need to be a further vote. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-52-48_uk_5820dc7ce4b020461a1d5fd9

As we know, it was actually tighter. So let's have that further vote - a People's Vote on the terms of Brexit. This is what I wrote to the two UKIP members, David Kurten and Peter Whittle:

During the Brexit referendum campaign, UKIP promised that in the event of a 52-48% margin there would be another vote, as this would be too narrow to be conclusive.

As you know, the margin was even tighter, and it is also plain that the Brexit that was promised cannot be delivered.

I call on you now, therefore, to throw your weight behind the campaign for a People's Vote and to support it in Thursday's vote.

Brexitwatch: support a People's Vote by writing to your London Assembly members

On Thursday (6 September), the London Assembly will be voting on a motion calling on it to get behind the campaign for a People's Vote on the terms under which we leave the EU, with an option to remain if they are not good enough.

You can find your assembly member here:-

https://www.london.gov.uk/people/assembly

Please note: you will have one member for your constituency, but you should also write to the 11 members who represent the whole of London.

This is what I wrote to Labour and Conservative members:-

On the government’s own calculations, ANY form of Brexit makes the UK poorer, and yet our government is insisting on dragging us out of the EU, a decision that will damage London for years and possibly decades to come.

There is no mandate to do this on the basis of the referendum of 2016, because:

The vote was advisory and explicitly non-binding on MPs, though a large number of MPs have pretended otherwise

The electorate was gerrymandered by systematically excluding groups who would be severely disadvantaged by Brexit and who would be expected to vote against it

The vote was won by law-breaking by the Leave campaign

The Brexit that was promised by the Leave campaign cannot be delivered. Brexit will NOT mean more money for the NHS, getting the exact same benefits we had inside the EU, holding all the cards in negotiations etc

Leave voters voted for many different kinds of Brexit. Some wanted to be in the Single Market; others didn’t. Some wanted to be in the Customs Union; others didn’t. Some wanted more immigration from outside the EU, some wanted less, some wanted none, etc.

In short, Leave voters voted for a fantasy Brexit which would give them all of the often contradictory things they wanted, and some voted for bizarre reasons such as ‘a protest’ and ‘not wanting Remain to win by too many’!

It is vital, therefore, that all of us get a chance to vote for or reject the REAL Brexit – i.e. any agreement the government makes with the EU – with the option of remaining a member if the deal is not good enough.

I urge you, therefore, to vote on Thursday, 6 September for London to get behind the campaign for a People’s Vote.

Tomorrow I will post the email I have sent to UKIP members.

Brexitwatch: People's Vote NOW

Many people are demanding a 'People's Vote' at some point in the future - a referendum on any final terms negotiated with the EU for Brexit, but I am going to argue that we need a referendum now.

There is, apparently, no Parliamentary majority for the approach to Brexit set out in Theresa May's White Paper, nor for the 'no deal' approach supported by the Brexit fanatics, nor for dropping Brexit even though the Leave campaign broke the law and so invalidated the referendum result. 

The problem we have is that in the referendum, people voted to 'leave the EU'. That is all. But many Brexiters, including Theresa May, claim falsely that they have some mystical knowledge that people also voted to leave the Customs Union and the Single Market.

MPs appear to have no strategy, and certainly no resolve, for dealing with the present impasse. So I propose we go back to the people, and find out what they want, asking: do you wish to

1) Leave the EU, the Customs Union and the Single Market
2) Leave the EU and the Customs Union
3) Leave the EU and the Single Market
4) Leave the EU but remain in the Customs Union and the Single Market
5) Remain in the EU.

It would be made clear that, unlike the 2016 referendum, this one would be BINDING, with MPs guaranteeing they would implement the result however damaging they believed it would be. (This would also mean that key groups such as 16-18 year olds, UK citizens living abroad, etc could not be prevented from voting as they were in 2016.)

If any of the five options won more than 50% of the vote, then parliament would implement it. If none achieved this, then the bottom three would be eliminated, and the top two would go forward to a second, final round of voting.

There would obviously need to be better safeguards against cheating than there were in 2016, and newspapers would have to be required to observe the same standards of fairness and accuracy as broadcasters.

Some might complain that having to choose between one of five options is too complicated, but leaving the EU is a highly complicated business, and those who cannot be bothered to understand the detail should not really be voting.