Brexitwatch: Leave Planet Earth! How the Tories' "stop the boats" slogans evolved 2016-30

The Conservatives pretended, with some success, that the best way of improving the quality of life for the British people was to stop those so desperate that they had abandoned their homes and travelled thousands of miles in constant danger, from trying to reach our country. This seemed all the more bizarre as we had a desperate shortage of workers.

As each initiative to 'stop the boats' failed, the Tories' slogans evolved:

2016 Vote Brexit to STOP THE BOATS

2023 Quit the ECHR to STOP THE BOATS

2030 Leave Planet Earth to STOP THE BOATS

Leaving the EU failed. Treating its member countries as our enemies proved not to be a good way of getting the help we desperately needed from them if we wanted to 'stop the boats'. Leaving the ECHR was, if anything, even more disastrous, as it resulted in Britain becoming a pariah nation with its trade agreement with the EU torn up. The Conservatives talked up a new deal with North Korea as an alternative, but when mutual trade in its first year amounted to only £22.30, even some Tories began to have doubts. Leaving the ECHR also failed to 'stop the boats'.

The 'Leave Planet Earth' scheme was originally floated by the NatCons, or National Conservatives who were extreme right wingers even by Tory standards, and rejected by the party leadership, but by 2030 it had become official policy in spite of its obvious practical difficulties. Former prime minister Boris Johnson dismissed its critics as 'the woke Green liberal elite Remoaner Blob.'

During the early 2020s, incidentally, the Conservative government kept referring to those trying to seek asylum in the UK as 'illegal immigrants'. They were not, because it was not illegal to seek asylum, and the civil service refused to adopt this mendacious terminology, referring instead on official government websites to 'irregular immigration'.

Literary corner: Catch-Brexit, with apologies to Joseph Heller

 

'That's some catch, that Brexit catch', said Yossarian admiringly.

'So hit me with it again. So everyone knows this Brexit is crazy, right? But the MPs say they can't do nothing because the referendum was binding, right?'

'So some guys go to the judge and they say: "Hey judge, not only is Brexit crazy, but the referendum was bent." And the judge, he says: "Sure it was bent. It was bent as a nine dollar bill, but I can't do nothing because the referendum wasn't binding."' 

'So Brexit is crazy, but the MPs can't do nothing cos the referendum was binding, and the judges can't do nothing cos it wasn't binding.'

'Man, that's some catch. That's some catch.'

Brexit: the complete works so far - Shakespeare, Beckett, Sherlock Holmes, The Crown etc

 Happy Christmas! Shakespeare, Beckett, Conan Doyle, Netflix - what the immortals of literature have written so far about Brexit plus secret recordings that reveal the inside story of the UK's departure. All on this blog:

Samuel Beckett's lost masterpiece Waiting for the German carmakers. World exclusive excerpt

http://disasterhistorian.blogspot.com/2020/02/brexitwatch-waiting-for-german.html

Shakespeare's lost masterpiece: MacBoris. A Tragedy (for the UK). World exclusive excerpt

http://disasterhistorian.blogspot.com/2020/07/brexitwatch-macboris-shakespeares-lost.html

The lost Sherlock Holmes story: The Mystery of the Level Playing Field. World exclusive

http://disasterhistorian.blogspot.com/2020/10/brexitwatch-level-playing-field-mystery.html

World exclusive sneak preview of Series 12 of The Crown - Boris Johnson's 115th Dream

http://disasterhistorian.blogspot.com/2020/09/brexitwatch-this-wasnt-meant-to-happen.html

Plus three world exclusive secret recordings:

Inside DUP headquarters. How they decided to back Brexit and destroy the Union

http://disasterhistorian.blogspot.com/2020/09/brexitwatch-this-wasnt-meant-to-happen_20.html

Inside Leave Campaign headquarters before the referendum

http://disasterhistorian.blogspot.com/2020/08/brexitwatch-this-wasnt-meant-to-happen_17.html

And the Johnson-Macron phone call that sealed Johnson's Brexit 'deal'

http://disasterhistorian.blogspot.com/2020/12/brexitwatch-world-exclusive-that.html

Collect the set!

Brexitwatch: Write to Labour again!

Disappointing to have had no reply to my email to Sir Keir Starmer (who happens to be my MP) urging Labour to vote against any Tory Brexit that fails to fully satisfy Labour's 6 tests. (see my post of December 6.)

So I'm having another go - see below. If you don't want Labour to back a Tory Brexit and be disqualified from complaining about its damaging effects, you should write to Sir Keir and your Labour MP if you have one.

Dear Sir Keir, hope you had a good Christmas. I am disappointed not to have received a reply to my email of 6 December (see below) particularly as I keep reading that you are going to instruct Labour MPs to support Boris Johnson's dreadful Brexit 'deal'. 

Every day, new details emerge of how it will damage people's lives, but if Labour votes for it, you will be disqualified from criticising its effects. Imagine the scene :

'He used to be Captain Hindsight, Mr Speaker. Now he's been demoted to Sgt Turncoat! Just a few days ago, he and the party opposite voted for our historic agreement with the EU. Now they're against it! I know he's a lawyer, who changes his brief as often as he changes his briefs, Mr Speaker, but he's no leader. Britain needs leadership, and the party opposite have shown once again that they're shallow, unprincipled opportunists, who have nothing to offer our country.'

In 2018, you promised me Labour would vote against any 'deal' that did not satisfy all its six tests. This one comes nowhere near. You should keep you promise and urge Labour MPs to vote 'no' to Johnson's deal.

Yours,

John Withingon

Brexitwatch: Kent's Brexit bogs - is Boris Johnson planning his greatest double cross?

There's a story doing the rounds that the UK could rejoin the EU in short order under Article 49. I personally do not give it a lot of credence. Nor do I think we should arrogantly assume that other EU members would want us back after the way we've behaved over the last four years.

Still, it does make you wonder. As I've noted many times, anything you say about Boris Johnson has to be highly speculative because you can't believe a word he says. 

So why is Johnson's government building 'Farage Garages' all over the place to accommodate lorry drivers stranded by Brexit, and why is Kent being turned into a public toilet that you'll need a passport to get in and out of?

Is this just the inevitable result of a no-deal Brexit or whatever lousy bare bones deal Johnson manages to do?

Or is it to ram home to the Brexiters what a disaster leaving the EU is going to be (Kent voted 59% for Brexit in the referendum), and to soften them up for an eventual application to rejoin or at least to agree a relationship that keeps us in the Single Market and the Customs Union? After all, it's quite clear that Johnson knows perfectly well that Brexit is a thoroughly foolish idea for the UK, however much it may have advanced him personally.

I don't believe this is Johnson's game, and I wouldn't put any money on it, but he knows that if he is not to go down in history as the UK's worst ever (and possibly last) prime minister, then at some point he needs to pivot away from disaster.

Brexitwatch: this wasn't meant to happen! Part 2

 

Meanwhile at Leave headquarters:

Ever wondered why Boris Johnson looked as though he was going to a funeral when he announced Leave’s victory in the referendum? This transcript of a conversation from shortly before the vote explains: 

‘I say, Dom. Some jumped-up jackass has just asked me whether Brexit will mean less immigration. What’s our policy?’

‘Did they want less immigration?’

‘Er. I think so.’

‘So our policy is less immigration. If they want more immigration, our policy is more immigration. If they want no immigration, our policy is no immigration. Simple enough for you?’

‘But Dom, how will we reconcile all those contradictory promises?’

‘We won’t have to, because Remain will win.’

‘Yes, of course. Er, er, Dom I’m also a bit worried about these undertakings we’ve given about leaving the EU but keeping all the advantages of remaining.’

‘You just don’t get it, do you? We LOSE. So we won’t have to keep any promises. So we can promise anything. Then after Remain wins, we wait for the fury of the Tory head-bangers who’ve been denied their beloved Brexit, to force Cameron out. Look I’ve already written your campaign speech when you go for the leadership:

“My friends, no one campaigned harder for Brexit than me, but that fight is over, and now we must all accept the democratic result that we remain in the EU. Our task now is to bring together our party and our country – Leavers and Remainers – to take us forward to the next phase of our world-beating history.” Then throw in a bit of Latin or something if you must.’

‘Fine, Dom, yes. Er, one other thing. How should I vote?’

‘For Remain like me, what do you think? But don’t tell anybody.’

Brexitwatch: make UKIP honour its promise

On Thursday (6 Sept), the London Assembly votes on whether to throw its weight behind a People's Vote. On Friday (31 Aug) I posted an email I had written to Labour and Conservative members, but if you are a Londoner, you are also represented by two UKIP members, who are elected as 'Londonwide' members. So don't leave them out!

During the referendum campaign, Nigel Farage said that if the margin of victory was as narrow as 52% to 48% there would need to be a further vote. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-52-48_uk_5820dc7ce4b020461a1d5fd9

As we know, it was actually tighter. So let's have that further vote - a People's Vote on the terms of Brexit. This is what I wrote to the two UKIP members, David Kurten and Peter Whittle:

During the Brexit referendum campaign, UKIP promised that in the event of a 52-48% margin there would be another vote, as this would be too narrow to be conclusive.

As you know, the margin was even tighter, and it is also plain that the Brexit that was promised cannot be delivered.

I call on you now, therefore, to throw your weight behind the campaign for a People's Vote and to support it in Thursday's vote.

Brexitwatch: support a People's Vote by writing to your London Assembly members

On Thursday (6 September), the London Assembly will be voting on a motion calling on it to get behind the campaign for a People's Vote on the terms under which we leave the EU, with an option to remain if they are not good enough.

You can find your assembly member here:-

https://www.london.gov.uk/people/assembly

Please note: you will have one member for your constituency, but you should also write to the 11 members who represent the whole of London.

This is what I wrote to Labour and Conservative members:-

On the government’s own calculations, ANY form of Brexit makes the UK poorer, and yet our government is insisting on dragging us out of the EU, a decision that will damage London for years and possibly decades to come.

There is no mandate to do this on the basis of the referendum of 2016, because:

The vote was advisory and explicitly non-binding on MPs, though a large number of MPs have pretended otherwise

The electorate was gerrymandered by systematically excluding groups who would be severely disadvantaged by Brexit and who would be expected to vote against it

The vote was won by law-breaking by the Leave campaign

The Brexit that was promised by the Leave campaign cannot be delivered. Brexit will NOT mean more money for the NHS, getting the exact same benefits we had inside the EU, holding all the cards in negotiations etc

Leave voters voted for many different kinds of Brexit. Some wanted to be in the Single Market; others didn’t. Some wanted to be in the Customs Union; others didn’t. Some wanted more immigration from outside the EU, some wanted less, some wanted none, etc.

In short, Leave voters voted for a fantasy Brexit which would give them all of the often contradictory things they wanted, and some voted for bizarre reasons such as ‘a protest’ and ‘not wanting Remain to win by too many’!

It is vital, therefore, that all of us get a chance to vote for or reject the REAL Brexit – i.e. any agreement the government makes with the EU – with the option of remaining a member if the deal is not good enough.

I urge you, therefore, to vote on Thursday, 6 September for London to get behind the campaign for a People’s Vote.

Tomorrow I will post the email I have sent to UKIP members.

Brexit; quadruple (or more) whammy

Another bad week for Brexit. Here are a few of the lowlights.

The UK lost the EU medicines agency and banking authority in spite of rather bizarre assurances from Brexit secretary David Davis that in this instance, Brexit would not mean Brexit and they would stay in London. So up in smoke went more than 1,000 high quality jobs the UK had fought very hard to get, and our international prestige received a huge dent.

It was revealed that since the Brexit vote, European banks had dumped £350bn of UK-linked assets. That’s more than twice the entire NHS budget.

Brexit will cut government tax revenues by £42bn between 2019 and 2021. That’s about half the entire education budget. And because of the higher prices it has caused, Brexit has produced an effective £448 pay cut for every worker.

And one thing we can be sure of, until Theresa May changes course, there will be plenty more bad news.

Europe: stay or leave? Focus on Fact - 3

One of the curious things about the UK's EU referendum is how the anti-Europeans claim to be patriotic. In fact, not a single ones of our allies and friends abroad want us to leave Europe. The only people who want us to leave are our enemies – ISIS and President Putin.

These facts are particularly inconvenient for the Brexiters because they claim that once we have dumped Europe, we can cosy up to the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Good luck with that one. All those countries have told us we need to stay in Europe.

If they manage to drag us out of Europe, the anti-Europeans load most of their hopes on America. So how are they preparing the ground? By insulting President Obama, and telling America to shut up. There is a worrying bullying streak to some of the Brexiters, particularly Boris Johnson and the disgraced former defence secretary Liam Fox, who try to silence anyone who says anything positive about Europe.

Now they have told Obama that he must not dare express his views on the subject. I trust we can count on the president to ignore the bullies.

David Cameron and Europe - at last the truth

Like me you probably thought you were seeing things a couple of days ago when David Cameron suddenly seemed to develop a backbone as he declared that anti-European ministers would have to, er . . . follow government policy or resign. Indeed we were seeing things, and normal service was resumed within a couple of hours as Dave caved in to the anti-European fanatics.

I did warn that if the Tories won the General Election in 2015, Britain would leave Europe. It is not what Cameron wants. He and George Osborne understand it would be a disaster, even if the rest of their party do not, but having the courage to say so is, of course, quite another matter.

It’s clear that Cameron’s plan is to follow Harold Wilson’s recipe from 1975. Lace your speeches with plenty of anti-European rhetoric and agree to a referendum to placate the extremists in your party. Carry on a ‘renegotiation’ with your European partners. Gain a couple of cosmetic changes that you sell as major concessions. Win the referendum to stay in Europe by a comfortable majority.

I covered the 1975 referendum, and here is why Cameron will fail:-

1. Harold Wilson was one of the sharpest political operators Britain has ever seen. Cameron is simply not in his class.

2. The newspapers in Wilson’s time covered Europe reasonably fairly. Now the papers with the biggest circulations spew out an unremitting stream of anti-European bile.

Brexit looms. Will the last businessman to leave the country please turn out the lights.

UK and Europe - how the relationship works

Stage 1

Europe:  ’ We are planning this important new project.’

UK: ‘It will never happen.’

Stage 2

It happens.

UK: ‘All right.  It has happened, but it will never work.’

Stage 3

It works.

UK: ‘All right.  It has happened and it works, but we do not want anything to do with it.’

Stage 4

UK: ‘Please may we join?’

*A Facebook page I have just written on Britain's 20 Worst Military Disasters.  http://www.facebook.com/notes/the-history-press/a-disastrous-retreat-by-john-withington/10150453234788631