Brexitwatch: the blog that foresaw the future.

So I was proved right, though I would have preferred to be proved wrong. 

This is what I posted on 10 June 2015

WEDNESDAY, 10 JUNE 2015

David Cameron and Europe - at last the truth

Like me you probably thought you were seeing things a couple of days ago when David Cameron suddenly seemed to develop a backbone as he declared that anti-European ministers would have to, er . . . follow government policy or resign. Indeed we were seeing things, and normal service was resumed within a couple of hours as Dave caved in to the anti-European fanatics.

I did warn that if the Tories won the General Election in 2015, Britain would leave Europe. It is not what Cameron wants. He and George Osborne understand it would be a disaster, even if the rest of their party do not, but having the courage to say so is, of course, quite another matter.

It’s clear that Cameron’s plan is to follow Harold Wilson’s recipe from 1975. Lace your speeches with plenty of anti-European rhetoric and agree to a referendum to placate the extremists in your party. Carry on a ‘renegotiation’ with your European partners. Gain a couple of cosmetic changes that you sell as major concessions. Win the referendum to stay in Europe by a comfortable majority.

I covered the 1975 referendum, and here is why Cameron will fail:-

1. Harold Wilson was one of the sharpest political operators Britain has ever seen. Cameron is simply not in his class.

2. The newspapers in Wilson’s time covered Europe reasonably fairly. Now the papers with the biggest circulations spew out an unremitting stream of anti-European bile.

Brexit looms. Will the last businessman to leave the country please turn out the lights.

David Cameron and Europe - at last the truth

Like me you probably thought you were seeing things a couple of days ago when David Cameron suddenly seemed to develop a backbone as he declared that anti-European ministers would have to, er . . . follow government policy or resign. Indeed we were seeing things, and normal service was resumed within a couple of hours as Dave caved in to the anti-European fanatics.

I did warn that if the Tories won the General Election in 2015, Britain would leave Europe. It is not what Cameron wants. He and George Osborne understand it would be a disaster, even if the rest of their party do not, but having the courage to say so is, of course, quite another matter.

It’s clear that Cameron’s plan is to follow Harold Wilson’s recipe from 1975. Lace your speeches with plenty of anti-European rhetoric and agree to a referendum to placate the extremists in your party. Carry on a ‘renegotiation’ with your European partners. Gain a couple of cosmetic changes that you sell as major concessions. Win the referendum to stay in Europe by a comfortable majority.

I covered the 1975 referendum, and here is why Cameron will fail:-

1. Harold Wilson was one of the sharpest political operators Britain has ever seen. Cameron is simply not in his class.

2. The newspapers in Wilson’s time covered Europe reasonably fairly. Now the papers with the biggest circulations spew out an unremitting stream of anti-European bile.

Brexit looms. Will the last businessman to leave the country please turn out the lights.

Iraq + strangest anniversary

It was six years ago today that Labour launched its illegal, ill-judged, unnecessary and disastrous war in Iraq (see my blogs passim) – a classic example of invade in haste, repent at leisure. Any fool can start a war, it’s ending one that’s difficult. The Iraq madness has now gone on longer than the Second World War.

The anniversary has been marked by fresh demands for a full independent inquiry into the war. Now you can’t depend on Labour MP’s for many things, but you can be sure that they will pull out all the stops to ensure that no one is called to account for the Iraq disaster. How did the party of Clement Attlee and Harold Wilson transmute into this shower?

Another anniversary today, and perhaps the most bizarre I have ever had to record. It was an unfortunate astrological configuration on March 20, 1345 and it caused the Black Death. At least, that was what the medical faculty of the University of Paris said when the French king told them they had better come up with an explanation of perhaps the greatest disaster mankind has ever had to endure, though they had the good grace to admit that some things were “hidden from even the most highly trained intellects.”

For the full story, see A Disastrous History of the World.