Europe: stay or leave? Focus on Fact - 3

One of the curious things about the UK's EU referendum is how the anti-Europeans claim to be patriotic. In fact, not a single ones of our allies and friends abroad want us to leave Europe. The only people who want us to leave are our enemies – ISIS and President Putin.

These facts are particularly inconvenient for the Brexiters because they claim that once we have dumped Europe, we can cosy up to the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Good luck with that one. All those countries have told us we need to stay in Europe.

If they manage to drag us out of Europe, the anti-Europeans load most of their hopes on America. So how are they preparing the ground? By insulting President Obama, and telling America to shut up. There is a worrying bullying streak to some of the Brexiters, particularly Boris Johnson and the disgraced former defence secretary Liam Fox, who try to silence anyone who says anything positive about Europe.

Now they have told Obama that he must not dare express his views on the subject. I trust we can count on the president to ignore the bullies.

Floods: chronicle of a disaster foretold

Late in 2013, my book Flood: Nature and Culture was published by Reaktion Books. It noted the devastating floods seen across the world the previous year, and ended with a question:-

'Are we witnessing nothing more than the normal ups and downs of the climate? Or are those calculations by so many scientists right: does mankind now face a struggle with floods the like of which we have never seen before?'

Many people in the north of the UK in particular must have been asking something similar as the rainfall records I wrote about in the book keep being broken, leading more and more politicians to concede that what they had been categorising as 'exceptional' might, in fact, be becoming normal. The Environment Agency has admitted that a 'complete rethink' may be needed on flood defences.

In Flood, I also noted that in the United States, of the 48 Republican candidates for the Senate mid-term elections of 2010, all but one either denied the existence of global warming or opposed any action to combat it. It will be interesting to note what shift in opinion, if any, we see on the American right as the next year's presidential election looms.

Flood on Amazon:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Flood-Nature-Culture-John-Withington/dp/1780231962/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1451496198&sr=1-1&keywords=flood+nature+and+culture

5 things we have learned from Gaza

1. Western governments do not seem to understand the word ‘terrorism’. Israel has killed more than 1,000 Palestinians – the vast majority of them women, children and other civilians. Hamas has killed 46 Israelis – almost all of them soldiers, and yet for Western governments, it is Hamas who are the ‘terrorists’.

2. The US, and its allies such as the UK, have squandered any influence they had in the region by their relentless, unquestioning support for Israel. Now the Palestinians take no notice of them because they are simply part of the enemy keeping them in servitude, and the Israelis take no notice because they know however badly they behave, the West will do nothing.

3. Understandably, would-be peacemakers are focused on just stopping the fighting. And, heaven knows that would be nice, but if the causes are not addressed – Israel’s blockade of Gaza, its illegal occupation of the West Bank and its constant theft of Palestinian land – then any ceasefire will just be an interval and war will soon be resumed.

4. The Israelis are not interested in any such settlement, particularly with American dollars and weapons pouring in. ‘Mowing the lawn’ (that’s what Israel calls its regular attacks on Gaza) is very popular.  After all, it allows Israel to steal a bit more Palestinian land every day, extending its empire and making the prospect of a Palestinian state a little more impossible every day.

5. However attractive it may appear in the short term, this does not represent a viable long-term strategy for Israel.  It is making the neighbours who surround it hate it more and more, while its cruel oppression of another people is corroding its own sense of right and wrong, and increasingly infecting its politics with racism and extremism. The window of opportunity for Israel to make an equitable, peaceful settlement with the Palestinians may be shorter than it realises. When empires collapse, it often happens surprisingly quickly.

Euripides warned: ‘The strong should not abuse their strength, nor the fortunate think Chance will bless them forever.' Israel needs to take note today. Tomorrow may be too late.

www.haaretz.com shows some people in Israel are thinking about these issues.

Civilian airliners shot down by the military

From their frantic attempts to conceal and remove evidence from the crash site, it now seems clear that it was pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine who shot down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, killing all 298 people aboard the Boeing 777. What is not yet clear is how deep was the involvement of President Putin of Russia.

In 1983, a Korean Air Lines Boeing 747 en route from Alaska to Seoul in south Korea was shot down by a Soviet fighter close to Sakhalin Island. All 269 people on board died. The aircraft had been passing through forbidden Soviet air space around the time of a US reconnaissance mission.

At first the Soviet Union denied shooting down the aircraft, then later admitted it, claiming the jumbo was on a spying mission. It took many years and the collapse of the Soviet regime before the flight data recorders were released.

In 1988, a US warship shot down an Iran Air Airbus A-300 over the Straits of Hormuz, killing all 290 people on board, in the apparent belief that it was an Iranian warplane. The US denied responsibility for the act, but in 1996, it paid more than $130m in compensation after Iran took a case to the International Court of Justice.

Iraq and madness

‘Put a sock in it!’ That was London Mayor Boris Johnson’s advice to Tony Blair after his latest attempt to justify the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Mr Johnson, who voted for the war, declared that Mr Blair ‘has finally gone mad’.

You can see why the mayor might take this view. Bush and Blair attacked the country as part of the ‘war on terror’. When they launched their invasion, there was plenty wrong with Iraq, but there was no terrorism to speak of. Now Prime Minister David Cameron rates the ISIS Islamic extremists of Iraq and Syria as the biggest terrorist danger to the UK.

One of the reasons why so many people in the UK opposed invading Iraq was that it would put us at risk of events like the 7.7 bombings of 2005. Now, what do you know? Mr Cameron is warning us that ISIS is planning attacks in the UK.

It is, of course, the Iraqi people themselves who are the main victims of terrorism, and I have blogged frequently about their suffering. Last month nearly 800 people were killed, and already this month, hundreds more have died.

Deadly tunnel

The Americans have been repairing the Salang tunnel in Afghanistan. Nearly two miles long and 11,000 feet up in the Hindu Kush mountains, it was an engineering wonder when it was built by the Soviet Union in the 1960’s. Now it has a leaky roof, a rutted surface, and failing ventilation and lighting.  

On November 3, 1982, the tunnel was the scene of one of the world’s deadliest ever road accidents – assuming that it was an accident.

The official Soviet version is that two military convoys collided, causing a traffic jam in which 64 Soviet soldiers and 112 Afghan people were poisoned by carbon monoxide.  Unofficial reports speak of a fuel tanker blowing up, perhaps as a result of an attack by Afghan guerrillas.

It is said that this resulted in a deadly chain reaction of explosions, while the Russians sealed off both ends of the tunnel, trapping hundreds of people inside. In this unofficial version, 700 Soviet troops and 2,000 Afghans may have died.

Sandy's shadow

New York City is still facing major disruption from ‘superstorm’ Sandy.   Up to 40,000 people have been driven from their homes, public transport is still severely disrupted, and 130,000 residents are still without electricity.

Across New York State, there are another 600,000 without power, as well as nearly a million in New Jersey.    The storm is thought to have caused 106 deaths in the USA, including 40 in New York City, and another 69 in the Caribbean.

At 900 miles wide, Sandy was the largest storm ever seen in the Atlantic.   It hit the Big Apple with a record 14 foot tidal surge, shutting down the subway system, and closing nearly all the road tunnels and bridges, virtually isolating Manhattan.    The National Guard had to be called out to deliver emergency supplies.

Only last year, a report from the New York State Energy Research and Development Corporation had delivered a warning of how devastating a major storm combined with a tidal surge could be for the City.

*The Londonist website has reminded us of another 'forgotten' London fire - the Colney Hatch asylum fire of 1903.  http://londonist.com/2012/09/londons-forgotten-disasters-the-colney-hatch-fire.php.   See also p 107 of A Disastrous History of Britain.

Floods in deserts

That’s me in the Lower Antelope Canyon near Page in the deserts of Arizona, USA,  which I visited last month.  It’s place of bizarre, fascinating rock formations, but also a reminder that disastrous floods can strike almost anywhere, even in deserts.

On August 12, 1997, 11 tourists, including 7 from France, were walking through the long narrow, ‘slot’ canyon.   There had been little rain close to the site, but a thunderstorm had dumped a lot of water into the canyon basin seven miles upstream.

By the time it swept into the slot canyon, this flash flood was swelled by logs and stones.    The tourists’  guide managed to wedge himself behind an outcrop, and for a time he held on to two of his party, but eventually the careering waters dragged them from his grasp.

Then he too was swept downstream.   He was found alive on a ledge – the only survivor.   Two of the victims’ bodies have never been found.     You can find more detail here - http://climb-utah.com/Powell/flash_antelope.htm

Picture by Anne Clements http://www.anneclements.com/

War on drugs - danger of sanity outbreak

Members of Congress in Colombia are demanding the decriminalisation of some drugs.    The government and the USA oppose the move, but supporters say the ‘war on drugs’ has failed, and that the country has already paid a high enough price in blood.

Because drugs are illegal, millions of dollars flow into the hands of Latin American criminal gangs, providing most of their income.   Eight of the world’s 10 most violent countries are to be found in the region, and a mind-boggling 28,000 people are said to have been killed in Mexico’s ‘war on drugs’ over the last four years.

The US government has said decriminalisation was ‘worth discussing’, but that there was no possibility of the Americans dropping their opposition to it.   So what would be the point of talking to them, you might ask.

Even so, the hard-line president of Guatemala has announced his support for the policy, while former presidents of Brazil , Mexico and Colombia have declared the ‘war on drugs’ a failure.   At next month’s Summit of the Americas, Latin American leaders who want a change of approach will get a chance to put forward their arguments.

(See also my blogs of May 28, June 10 and 12, Aug 18, Sept 10, 2010, and March 8, 2011.)

Honduras prison fire worst ever?

Perhaps the deadliest prison fire in history has claimed the lives of at least 300 inmates at Comayagua in Honduras.    A further 56 of the 853 prisoners are still missing.

The fire broke out late on Tuesday night, and it took more than an hour before it was brought under control.  The cause is still unknown.  Dozens of prisoners died trapped in their cells while police fired tear gas at relatives who tried to force their way in. 

Firefighters say they were unable to free inmates because they did not have keys to their cells and they could not find the guards who did.  The Honduran President has promised a 'full and transparent' investigation.

The disaster looks set to become the deadliest prison fire ever.    The worst until now happened in America’s Ohio State Penitentiary at Columbus, where more than 320 inmates were killed in 1930.

(see also my blog of Dec 9, 2010)

Britain's 20 Worst Military Disasters 11 - the Battle of New Orleans

The year 1815 is celebrated in British history for the great victory at Waterloo, but there was also a great defeat – at New Orleans on January 8.   Britain and the infant United States had fallen out over Britain’s press-ganging of American sailors, her attempts to impose a blockade against Napoleonic France, and American territorial ambitions in Canada.

In fact, the battle should never have been fought, as the two combatants had made peace at Ghent on Christmas Eve 1814, but the news had still not reached America.     If it had, the British would probably have been disappointed.   They had 8,000 professional soldiers, many of whom had helped defeat the French in the Peninsular War, and fancied themselves to rout General Andrew Jackson’s untrained frontiersmen.

The American ranks, though, were packed with sharpshooters, and Jackson had constructed his defences well and sited his artillery very effectively.    When the British charged, they were cut down in dozens.

The British commander, Edward Pakenham was killed, as was another British general, and within 25 minutes, the Redcoats had to withdraw, having lost 2,000 killed, wounded or captured against just 300 casualties on the American side.

*A review of Britain’s 20 Worst Military Disasters from Kent on Sunday.

http://www.kentnews.co.uk/news/how_kent_s_military_disasters_changed_the_course_of_history_1_1147200

Britain's 20 Worst Military Disasters 9 - Surrender at Yorktown 1781

By the summer of 1781, the British were confident of winning the American War of Independence.   George Washington’s rebel army was in a state of mutiny, and it was only thanks to his French allies, that he had been able to keep hostilities going.    Now the French were saying they would be pulling out at the end of the year.

The British had two armies, one in the north and one in the south.    The southern force under Lord Cornwallis had been given the job of fortifying a base for the Royal Navy at Yorktown in Virginia.

By accident or design, the rebels had led the British commander-in-chief, Sir Henry Clinton, to believe that they were going to attack the northern army in New York.   Instead, on September 28, they moved 16,000 men to Virginia, trapping Cornwallis at Yorktown.

For three weeks, the British commander held out, but by then with sickness reducing his effective strength to just over 3,000, and enemy artillery flattening his defences, Cornwallis surrendered, and four months later the House of Commons voted to abandon the war.

Famines in Africa

The United Nations has officially declared a famine in Somalia, the first since 1992.   Half the population – 3.7 million – are said to be at risk, with another 7 million in Kenya and Ethiopia also in need of help.

As is so often the case in African famines, politics is playing a part.   The Islamist militia, al-Shabab, which is affiliated to al-Qaeda, controls the area where the famine is raging, and two years ago it banned foreign aid agencies.   Even now it is prepared to allow only limited access.

The stricken area had previously included the most fertile part of the country, and the UN says nearly £1 billion in aid is needed.  The USA has said it will send help so long as al-Shahab does not interfere with it, or use it to raise money.

The great Ethiopian famines of the 1970’s and 80’s were also aggravated by politics.   In the first, the Emperor Haile Selassie, responded lethargically (and was promptly deposed), while the second was exacerbated by President Mengistu’s scorched earth campaign against rebels, and his determination that the famine would not spoil a birthday celebration for his regime.

US - worst tornado season in 75 years

More than 520 people have been killed in tornadoes in the United States so far this year, making it the deadliest since 1936.

Between April 25 and 28, what has now been dubbed the 2011 Super Outbreak caused the deaths of 317 people in Alabama and seven other states.     Then on May 22, Joplin, Missouri was devastated with 138 people being killed.   

According to some estimates, up to 75% of the city of 50,000 was damaged, with around 2,000 buildings destroyed.   One relief worker described the devastation as ‘unimaginable’, and when President Obama visited Joplin, he said it was the worst destruction he had ever seen, calling the scene ‘heartbreaking’, but he promised government help to rebuild the city.

Scientists put the strength of the tornado at the top of the scale used to measure them.    (See also my blogs of April 18 and May 24.)

"War on drugs" - Mexico

A staggering 23,000 people have been killed in the last three and a half years in Mexico’s “war on drugs.” Poor Mexico is right next door to the biggest drugs market in the world, the United States.

The “war” was declared by President Felipe Calderon when he came to power. He has bussed troops and police into cities such as Juarez, which stands on the main smuggling route, in an attempt to halt the traffic into the US. In spite of all those security forces, more than 1,000 people have been killed in the city in drugs-related violence this year, and the mayor has to drive around in a heavily armoured vehicle.

Most of those killed are aged between 14 and 24, but while Mexico sees its future bleeding away, the drugs cartels just find other paths for their product. Unemployment is high, and the gangs have no difficulty in recruiting killers for £30 a week.

As I wrote in my blog of May 28, perhaps the most depressing thing about the “war on drugs” is how little evidence there is of an intelligent debate about whether the policy makes sense.

The war on drugs - Jamaica

Seldom has the “war on drugs” been seen in more graphic action than on the streets of Kingston, Jamaica, as security forces try to arrest, at the United States’ request, the alleged narcotics baron Christopher “Dudus” Coke. 73 people have now been killed, and, as in so many wars, most of them appear to have been civilians.

The toll is mounting towards that recorded in the island’s worst disaster of the last 100 years – Hurricane Charlie in 1951, which claimed 152 lives.

It is not clear whether Coke is still in his Tivoli Gardens stronghold, but he appears to have support from many in the area who regard him as a benefactor to the dispossessed ignored by the government. Some local people have been shouting “murderers” at Jamaican soldiers.

The battle has revived the question of whether criminalisation is the best way to combat the drugs trade, or whether, however well-meaning, the policy is as disastrous as was the prohibition of alcohol in the United States in the 1920’s.

Avalanches

At least 38 people have been killed by an avalanche that buried a village in the remote Kohistan district in north-west Pakistan. Avalanches are common in the area, and heavy snow over the last fortnight has increased the danger.

Earlier this month, a series of avalanches struck the approach to the Salang tunnel in Afghanistan, burying more than two miles of road and killing at least 172 people. The Salang tunnel was the scene of a disastrous road crash in 1982 which cost the lives of up to 2,000 people. For more details, see A Disastrous History of the World.

The deadliest natural avalanche ever was probably the one that buried the town of Plurs in Switzerland in 1618, killing more than 2,400, but during World War One in the Tyrol, the Italian and Austrian armies each deliberately set off avalanches with explosives, and during one period of 48 hours, 10,000 soldiers were killed.

I mentioned in my blog of Feb 6 that my world disasters book has now been published in the United States as Disaster! My thanks to The Southern in Illinois which has written articles on the book:-

http://www.thesouthern.com/news/local/article_70ddf2ee-1ab6-11df-a631-001cc4c03286.html
http://www.thesouthern.com/news/local/article_6014bbfe-1a4e-11df-b826-001cc4c03286.html

Haiti earthquake

The Red Cross estimates that up to 50,000 people have been killed by the earthquake in Haiti, and some say the total could be as high as 100,000. The United States is sending 5,500 service personnel to help the rescue effort in one of the poorest, most chaotic countries on earth.

The UN had been playing a major role in keeping a semblance of normal life going , and now 150 of its staff are missing after its headquarters in Port-au-Prince collapsed. At the moment, the search for survivors in the city is mainly being carried out by the bare hands of rescuers.

It is 240 years since an earthquake approaching this magnitude hit Haiti. In June 1770, Port-au-Prince was razed to the ground as were a number of villages. At least 200 people died in the quake itself, and up to 30,000 in the chaos that followed.

In 2004, the country was hit by Hurricane Jeanne, which killed 3,000 and caused widespread disruption. Then in 2008, the town of Gonaives was hit by four hurricanes in a month, causing 1,000 deaths, and making a million people homeless.

Native Americans

President Obama is holding the first ever conference for all of America’s native Indians. Delegates from all 564 tribes have been invited to the White House as the president promised them a better deal.

Estimates of the number of native Americans before the appearance of the white man range as high as 18 million. Then they were killed in wars or by being driven from their lands, but most of all by disease.

With no immunity to the infections brought from Europe, they died in their thousands, from chicken pox, smallpox, measles. In 1618, smallpox wiped out 90% of the Massachusetts Bay native Americans.

A century and a half later, the disease reached the northwest coast, and killed off 30% of the Indians there. In the Puget Sound area, a population of 37,000 was reduced to just 9,000, and epidemics continued on into the nineteenth century. Today, there are about 2 million Indians left in the United States and about 1 million in Canada.

Mass murder - a tale of two sentences

So Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, the Libyan convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, got his release, to cries of outrage from the United States government. It was “absolutely wrong”, said Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.

Then in a bizarre coincidence, up popped former US army officer Lt William Calley – not much heard of since the 1970’s when he was convicted of the mass murder of 500 Vietnamese civilians at My Lai. Yesterday Lt Calley offered his first public apology for the crime.

Back in 1971, he was sent to gaol for life. And what was the reaction of the US government? The unbending determination that it would be “absolutely wrong” to release a mass murderer before he had served his full sentence? No, actually President Nixon quickly cut his punishment to three years’ house arrest.

And there were no doubts about Calley’s guilt unlike that of Megrahi (see my blogs of July 27 and Aug 16), nor was he dying of cancer. Double standards, anyone?